Another October Surprise

I had intended to write about the Supreme Court vacancy and the politics which would put the issue front and centre immediately after the inauguration of the new president. However, yesterday's revelation that the FBI is re-opening its investigation of the Clinton private email server matter is another staggering October surprise in this extraordinary election.

James Comey, the FBI director, wrote a bland but explosive letter to the chairs of various Congressional committees:

In previous congressional testimony, I referred to the fact that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had completed its investigation of former Secretary Clinton’s personal email server. Due to recent developments, 1 am writing to supplement my previous testimony.

In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation. I am writing to inform you that the investigative team briefed me on this yesterday, and I agreed that the FBI should take investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation.

Although the FBI cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant, and I cannot predict how long it will take us to complete this additional work, I believe it is important to update your Committees about our efforts in light of my previous testimony.

Hours later, John Podesta, chairman of Mrs Clinton’s 2016 Campaign, wrote:

Upon completing this investigation more than three months ago, FBI Director Comey declared no reasonable prosecutor would move forward with a case like this and added that it was not even a close call. In the months since, Donald Trump and his Republican allies have been baselessly second-guessing the FBI and, in both public and private, browbeating the career officials there to revisit their conclusion in a desperate attempt to harm Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

FBI Director Comey should immediately provide the American public more information than is contained in the letter he sent to eight Republican committee chairmen. Already, we have seen characterizations that the FBI is “reopening” an investigation but Comey’s words do not match that characterization. Director Comey’s letter refers to emails that came to light in an unrelated case, but we have no idea what those emails are and the Director himself notes they may not even be significant.

It is extraordinary that we would see something like this just 11 days out from a presidential election. The Director owes it to the American people to immediately provide the full details of what he is now examining. We are confident this will not produce any conclusions different from the one the FBI reached in July.

 

The action stems from an FBI investigation of Anthony Weiner, a former Congressman, who resigned amid a sexting scandal.  His ex-wife, Huma Anedin, is a Clinton insider and confidante. There seems to be a suspicion that she may have passed on confidential emails to her husband.  Whether Mrs Clinton is directly involved is unsaid by the FBI.

In July, the FBI closed its year-long investigation of Mrs Clinton, saying there was insufficient evidence to prosecute her. This is a legal euphemism for “we’ve got nothing.”  Assuming there is no politics involved in the FBI’s move last night, the Bureau had a difficult decision on the lines of ‘damned if we do and damned if we don’t.’ Had the FBI done nothing and it was discovered weeks or months later that there were indeed further questions for Mrs Clinton to answer, Republicans would scream “foul”, call the election a sham and seek to impeach the new President.

What I find positive is that the FBI, which is part of Homeland Security whose director reports to the President, was not prevented by political forces from taking this action. However, there must be concern that the new investigation is politically inspired by those who wish to damage Mrs Clinton, as well as harming the election process. Trump's reaction last night, gloating at Mrs Clinton's predicament, is truly appalling. After all, if Mrs Clinton has indeed broken national security rules, it is hardly a case for levity and high-fiving.

I doubt the outcome of the Presidential election will be much affected by what has happened. Most voters have already made up their minds. Clinton may drop some votes in the Presidential election but they won’t go to Trump. I cannot say the same for the Congressional elections, where people may decide to reject Democratic candidates because their leader may be flawed. If both Houses of Congress remain in Republican control because would-be Democratic voters were scared off, America will face two more years of gridlock government.

 

It is incumbent on the FBI to move quickly and express the extent to which the new investigation is germane to criminal or civil proceedings against Mrs Clinton. In addition, the evidence on which the FBI relies should be placed in the public arena. Only then would voters know what charges, if any, Mrs Clinton might face. The FBI will probably reject political and media pressure and say a criminal investigation cannot be influenced by an election. However, if it does not make adequate disclosure in the very near future, the voters, let alone Mrs Clinton, will have been treated unfairly.