Almost 50
years ago, Hunter Thomson wrote “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas.” In Wednesday
night’s debate, there was certainly a lot of loathing on display. In a
memorable outburst, Rotten Donald refused to say whether he would accept the
result of the election, should he be the loser.
Hillary Clinton riposted, “Every time Donald thinks things are not going
in his direction, he claims whatever it is, it is rigged against him. The FBI
conducted a yearlong investigation into my emails that concluded there was no
case. Trump has said the FBI was investigation was rigged. When Trump lost the
Iowa caucus, he said that was rigged. When he lost the Wisconsin primary, he
said that was rigged too. When he got sued over fraud for Trump University, he
alleged the court system was rigged. There was even a time when he failed to
win an Emmy for his TV program three years in a row. He tweeted that the Emmys
were rigged.”
Had Trump live
a hundred years ago in Kansas City and run for office as a Republican in the
City election, or a few years later had he sought office as a US Senator for
Missouri, I would have felt sympathy for him because it was predictable he
would lose. Boss Tom Pendergast had the state tied up. For twenty years, Boss
Tom won city elections for the Democrats with consummate ease. He used all manner
of election tricks to do so. In 1934, Harry Truman benefited from Tom’s patronage
when winning the US Senate seat. The saying locally was that Tom watched the
returns from St. Louis and decided how many votes would be needed in Kansas
City to win!
Fast forward to
2000 when Al Gore lost Florida’s Electoral College votes through Republican
rigging. Since then there have been a few localized electoral frauds. However,
the days are over when election fraud is wholesale. Furthermore, even in the
1930s, Missouri had comprehensive election laws. Every state has them. The
reason they weren’t enforced against the Pendergast Machine was simple. The
judges were members of the machine!
America’s
election system, whilst not perfect, can be compared favorably with those of all
other free world nations. It is offensive for Trump to suggest otherwise.
Furthermore, to make allegations that the election will be fraudulent without
providing a shred of evidence in support may well be indicative of the kind of presidency
America would endure under Trump. In many ways, he is the modern version of
Joseph McCarthy, the man who demonized innocent Americans, wrongfully and
systematically claiming they were communists. Does America really want
Trumpism?
At the risk of
gilding the lily from my last blog, the elections for President, the US
Congress and the many state offices are regulated mostly by state law. The
federal law deals with the rules on campaign finance but not the conduct of the
elections themselves. The states, not the federal government, decide what
happens under its own electoral laws. Which states does Trump say have
wrongfully registered millions of voters? If there are indeed that many ‘ghosts’,
how is it he is the only one saying so?
It is for each
state to decide upon the election process. The 10th Amendment regulates
the process. This is why voting machines are not uniform in all the states.
Furthermore, when the media reports results on election night, First Amendment
rights permit broadcasts and predictions when the polls close in the east,
regardless of the fact that the rest of the country is still voting. In 1980,
Jimmy Carter conceded victory to Ronald Reagan when the California, Oregon and
Washington polls had not closed.
Trump is
hinting creation of post-election turmoil, without a shred of evidence to
support his ‘rigging’ claim. What kind of leadership is this? Yet, Trump makes one
telling point which should concern all of us, although I do not believe he has
a viable solution. Mrs. Clinton’s economic policies indicate an increase in the
deficit, although she denies it. At some stage, the American debt, which now runs
well into double-digit trillions, will become unsustainable. It’s a bit like
the emperor’s new suit of clothes. It can be ignored for only so long. If and
when Mrs. Clinton announces her first budget, the brown stuff could well hit
the fan if government spending is to rise again based on borrowing. Even if the
Democrats regain control of Congress, will the legislators lie on their backs
and nod through higher debt? The CR on the budget expires on 9th
January, 2017. A Democratic executive will have to work hard to avoid a
government shutdown.
I cannot see
any real circumstances where Trump ends up in the White House, except as an
invited guest. The Washington Post runs
100 different simulations of the outcome of the election. In 5% Trump wins,
which means a 95% probability for Hillary Clinton to be victorious. If this is right,
I say a qualified “thank heavens.” But the world is awash with debt and America
has to clean its own house. If nothing else, an American bankruptcy would take
Brexit off the front pages of the British press.
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