The October Surprise

The October surprise is a phenomenon of American politics, a news event deliberately or spontaneously created or timed to influence the outcome of an election, especially the Presidency. Events that take place in October are thought to be more likely to influence the decisions of prospective voters.

The expression first came into use in the 1972 election when the United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the Vietnam War. A mere twelve days before the election, Henry Kissinger appeared at a press conference held at the White House and announced, "We believe that peace is at hand." Nixon was already expected to win big against McGovern. Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration gave Nixon a slam-dunk.

Four days before the 1980 presidential election, Jimmy Carter was ahead in the polls but he was to suffer from an October surprise. Internal polls by the DNC told Carter he would lose. Ronald Reagan had benefited from press coverage of the Iranian government's July decision, as well as Carter's honest announcement, that hostages would not be released until after the election. In fact, the hostages were not released until 20^th January, 1981, minutes after Carter left office.

Just four days before the vote in the 1992 election, Reagan's defence secretary, Caspar Weinberger, was implicated in the Iran–Contra affair. Though he claimed to have been opposed to the sale of weapons on principle, Weinberger participated in sending United States missiles to Iran. Republicans accused the Independent Counsel, Lawrence Walsh, of timing the indictment to damage Bush’s (senior) re-election chances. However, Bush’s own statements on “no new taxes” did far more damage. Incidentally, Bush pardoned Weinberger, just days before his trial was scheduled to begin.

I am not aware of an October surprise in 2000 but it has been claimed that in 2004, Saudi Prince Bandar cut the price of oil, reducing US gas prices to help ensure a Bush (junior) victory. According to a 60 Minutes broadcast after the election, Bandar had enjoyed easy access to the Oval Office and promised Bush that Saudi Arabia would lower oil prices before the election to ensure the U.S. economy was strong on Election Day.  

On October 31, 2008, just before the 2008 presidential election, the Associated Press reported that Zeituni Onyango, half-aunt of Democratic candidate Barack Obama, was living as an illegal immigrant in Boston. She had been denied asylum and ordered to leave the United States in 2004. McCain was a poor candidate and no “October Surprise” would have saved him.

What of the present election? Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia supposedly came as a surprise but undoubtedly the most damaging development was last week’s revelation of the Trump tape when he used graphic language about his sexual advances on women and that he could get away with his actions because of his celebrity status. It is likely that this revelation will do more than others to destroy Trump’s run for The White House. And yet, according to The Washington Post, if only American men voted in the election, Trump would probably win. If this is right, this is a serious reflection of the gender preferences in America.

If this year’s October Surprise kicks Trump into the long grass, I, for one, will be delighted. He has no place in serious politics, let alone The Oval. By all means, let Mr Trump keep his disgusting ideas and views and voice them if anyone wants to hear them. After all, he has 1^st Amendment rights.

I do not suggest that the “October Surprise” is anything more than political coincidence but I would argue that this year it has benefited both the American political process and the free world.