One of the tourist
attractions in San Francisco is ‘The Crookedest Street in the World.’ The
street goes downhill in a series of switchbacks. I can think of roads in the
French Alps which are far more crooked but that’s by and by. The San Francisco Street
is a good metaphor for how I think politics works. When you get away from
ideology and into pragmatic deal making, politics does not have straight lines.
It twists and turns and rushing too quickly can send a politician off the road.
In other words, he or she ceases to have allies.
Tomorrow, President Trump
will work his first full day in office. By the end of the weekend, we may have
a better understanding of his real agenda and what is to come but I am certain
that it will not be plain sailing for the new President. Here is a man who has
portrayed himself as a saviour, the only man who can do this or that. He
demonstrates a vision of the political process which owes more to wishful
thinking than to the Oracle at Delphi. For those of you old enough to remember,
Walter Mitty may have returned to the capitol.
In my blog, I have often posed
the question: does Donald Trump fully understand the Constitution and the
reality of its checks and balances? He is about to encounter the 115th
Congress. Despite Trump press releases that the new President will enjoy a
“beautiful relationship” with the legislative branch and its Republican
majorities, I doubt it. My rationale is simple. It’s payback time.
The Republican majority
in the Senate is a mere four seats. I can think of four Senators who, in the
past twelve months, have received the sharp end of Trump’s tongue. He insulted
John McCain (AZ) with, “Last in his class at Annapolis…I like people who
weren’t captured.” Of Lindsey Graham (SC) he rudely said, “What a stiff…in the
private sector he couldn’t get a job.” He spoke shockingly of Marco Rubio (FLA)
as, “Little Marco…I’ve never seen a young guy sweat that much.” He was highly critical
of Rand Paul (KY.) “The people of Kentucky should not allow him the privilege
of remaining their senator.” I suspect Trump has gratuitously insulted other
Senate Republicans. It is only human nature, not to say politics, for them to
exact retribution.
As for the House, Mr Trump
refused to support the re-election of Paul Ryan (WI) but Ryan remains Speaker
of the House. This office is vested with immense power. For example, the
Speaker is the individual who decides which of the President’s legislative proposals
he will allow to come to the floor of the House for a vote. Speaker Ryan is a
‘free-trader’ who advocates tax reform to address trade imbalances, not raising
tariffs, which is an oft-used Trump threat. Ryan will be antagonistic if Trump
follows up on his predicted protectionist policies.
It is customary for the
legislature and the media to give an incoming President a honeymoon period,
generally 100 days, before twisting the knife. I wonder whether Trump will get
even 50 days. He has upset so many influential people of his own Party and in
the media that there will be an almost irresistible urge to hurt the new
President and his policies, simply because that is the way politics plays
Washington style.
Trump has promised
that on his first day in office he will give orders to repeal NAFTA and start
on the plan to Build the Wall. He has shown no desire to reach out to majority
and minority leaders in Congress. Perhaps he has no desire to get the branches
of the American government moving in the same direction. In a country that is
so divided not just politically but in economics, race and religion, this is
hardly a surprise. However, this would be a good time for President Trump to show
the voters how he implements ‘the art of the deal.’ Using Trump’s own words,
“it’s not what you undertake, it’s what you accomplish.”
What
of Trump’s much vaunted immediate repeal of Obamacare? Trump recently said
he is nearing completion of a plan to replace President Obama’s health-care law
with the goal of “insurance for everybody.” There are no specifics yet. Likewise,
Congressional Republicans want to constrain costs by reducing government
requirements. Speaker Ryan and other Republicans have talked about
providing “universal access” to health insurance, instead of universal
insurance coverage. I notice the word “affordable” is not used. Once again, no
specifics.
House Republicans have already taken first steps to repeal Obamacare through
budget reconciliation, enabling aspects of the federal spending laws on health to
be dismantled. Quite how this squares with Trump’s recent assertion that “we’re
going to have insurance for everybody” is anybody’s guess. There is a gulf
between what is said and what is done. Will it mean the end of medical coverage
for almost 20 million Americans? It is worrying that the Affordable Care Act
could be kicked into the long grass by both the executive and legislature without
a viable alternative. This is no way to lead.
Trump knows that
President Obama, faced with a hostile and ideological legislature, achieved
much less than desired, for example on gun laws. But the politics of Washington
have defeated many a post-WW2 President. Jimmy Carter is arguably the best
example of how not to run an administration. LBJ knew how to wrangle Congress.
It would not hurt for Trump to look how these two Presidents presided and what
happened as a result?
The trouble is that Trump
does not appear to welcome objective advice and his reading and writing
abilities these days seem to be limited to Twitter. 140 word sound bites
infuriate some readers, often make the writer an object of ridicule and yet are
universally published. I hope it’s not too late for President Trump to change
his ways but old dog, new tricks?
P.S. I will be blogging
about the Obama legacy, once Trump-mania settles down.
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