The Inauguration Address

I don’t like shooting from the hip. I like to think through my topic. However, quite a few readers have asked what I thought of the Inaugural ceremony. My immediate impression was that America demonstrated its ability to stage a large canvas political jamboree, although some might have preferred less time on religious incantations.

It is quite something watching how a democracy handles a peaceful transition of power. In the United Kingdom, it can be very rough. The newly elected Prime Minister enters from the front of 10 Downing Street while, quite often, the politically dead PM leaves from the back. In the States it’s very different. I marvel that the presidential election system devised by the Founding Fathers has stood the test of time. Despite Mrs Clinton winning the popular vote, I know of no groundswell of opinion that supports the elimination of the Electoral College.

As for yesterday’s occasion, it must be said that JFK pretty well spoiled the Inauguration Address for all his successors. How do you follow, "ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."

President Trump's address was hardly eloquence personified. It was ‘country’ and ‘folksy’ but he was spot on the message of the past 18 months: “Stop the carnage, drain the swamp, put the people in charge, put America first and make America great again.”

There are so many contradictions in the new President’s message. Take, “stop the carnage.” Part of this relates to mass killings of innocent citizens in places like Orlando, not to mention the epidemic of murders by and of police. How do you stop the carnage with America's gun laws in their present state? I would have thought restricting gun ownership and outlawing places where guns can be brought might be a start. But President Trump is an enthusiastic supporter of the Second Amendment. So, no joy there.

Drain the swamp has been or will be the subject of an Executive Order. (It’s hard to keep up with D.C at the moment.) The Trump solution is to prevent an elected official from serving as a lobbyist for five years after leaving government. Does not Trump know this has been tried before by President Clinton? Mere prevention is insufficient. The law has to be written in such a way as to impose criminal sanctions. However, what are the prospects of Congress passing such a law? No joy there either.

What of America first? Ignoring the trade policies of the Founding Father presidents through to the 20^th century, and starting with Coolidge and Hoover, protectionism was a key element in incubating conditions for the Great Depression. The infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 was an outrage inflicted by the Republican protectionists. Tariff increases of 50 per cent were common. FDR reinstated the tariff policy in his second term, bringing about another economic recession which ended only when USA became the arsenal of democracy.

Since World War II, American has been committed to a free-trade policy. It is a guiding principle of U.S. international economic policy that tariffs and other trade barriers should be reduced, that trade wars must be avoided at all costs and that the best way to achieve those goals is through multilateral negotiations. But the free-trade consensus has weakened. Trump’s protectionist rhetoric is a throw-back to the 1930s and we all know what followed. House Speaker Ryan is opposed to this kind of trade politics. Congress and the White House may soon be at battle stations.

As for “Make America Great Again,” a massive investment of billions of dollars is evidently on its way, providing jobs for Americans in rebuilding and repairing the infrastructure and building the wall. This is another 1930s policy. The underlying theme of Roosevelt’s New Deal was to put the head of the family back to work. However, will President Trump be able to fund the programme, faced with America’s massive debt? Will Congress fund the policy?

The Address had less to do with uniting the people than an appeal to Trump voters to keep the faith. What President Trump does in the next two weeks, leading to the State of the Union address, will be absorbing, fascinating and, I suspect, pretty scary.