On Your Marks, Get Set, Trump.

Last week, one of my readers sent me an analysis of the incoming American cabinet. He told me that among them there was a collective 55 years of government experience, mostly military. By contrast, the first cabinets of P-E Trump’s predecessors, Presidents Obama, Bush (43), Clinton and Bush (41), had 117, 80, 101 and 79 respectively. He also pointed out that Obama’s administration had only 5 years of business experience, whereas Trump’s will be 83.

I’m not sure what conclusions can be drawn from the numbers. However, whatever the previous experience of cabinet members, no matter how bright they are, if they have not already been in charge of a government department, they will be on a steep learning curve. If running a big business is 10, running a government department is 100 and running a country must be 10,000.

My reader also looked at the particular ideologies of future cabinet members. Tillerson and Perry, the putative Secretaries of State and Energy, are both climate change refusniks. The Head of Defense, Mattis, is a red baiter and an attacker. Jeff Sessions, as Attorney General is a dyed-in-the-wool Alabaman, allegedly with connections to the Ku Klux Klan. And there are many more similar contradictions in Trump’s choices. However, I content myself that, as P-E Trump will soon learn, if he doesn’t know it already, you campaign in poetry but you govern in prose. And before you reach for your computer keyboards, yes, Trump campaigned in blank verse!

Another more interesting suggestion was put to me. The onset of the Trump administration has similarities to the Roosevelt government of 1933. Both were and are headed by pragmatists, not ideologues who will attack a problem from the standpoint of what works. At first, I dismissed the notion but I have reconsidered. FDR was happy to engage government in all kinds of experiments and was not frightened of taking drastic action. P-E Trump has voiced a similar approach. However, unlike P-E Trump, FDR had the chance to experiment with policy when he was elected Governor of New York State in 1928.

An example of FDR’s experimentation is the Bank Holiday declared by him on Inauguration Day, 1933. American bank failures had reached record levels. Immediately after the Inauguration Speech when FDR famously declared, “the only thing we need to fear is fear itself,” he despatched accountants, lawyers and bagmen to the four corners of the country in cars, trains and aeroplanes. During the ensuing five days, every American bank was inspected. Those that were solvent were given bundles of cash – hence the need for bagmen – so depositors would be confident their money was safe and not stage a run on the bank when it reopened. Those banks which were insolvent were closed and depositors lost their savings. It was a savage policy but America’s banking system was saved.

P-E Trump seems to welcome disruption and chaos. Quite how he will deal with conflict of interest and nepotism issues remains to be seen. Chaos was meat and drink to FDR. Until 1933, the powerhouse in America government was Congress. The White House operated with fewer than 60 people. In his first 100 days, FDR created numerous government agencies, increasing the administration to more than 1,000 people, all reporting to him and by-passing Congress. The huge Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress ensured the passing of a whole collection of bills known as the First New Deal but nicknamed alphabet soup for their initials. Some of the legislation was contradictory. However, the thrust of the administration’s policies were to stabilise prices and put the head of the house to work and to the extent of ending a crisis, they worked.

Today, unlike FDR and his immediate predecessor, P-E Trump does not have a Great Depression nor an economic recession to combat. But he has many issues which divide America. Low pay for the middle and working classes, the uncontrolled use of guns, the fear or terrorism and a foreign policy in the Middle East which seems to have failed.

How would FDR have dealt with these issues? He would have experimented with policies and chopped and changed his staff to get things done. If an idea failed, he’d scrap it and try something else. FDR was not afraid of failure. I’d like to say the same of P-E Trump but he is so thin-skinned. I fear he will not handle failed policy criticism well. Twitter claims and denials will abound from the P-E. Another difference: FDR had a superb relationship with the media. Trump will have to work very hard to build that kind of connection.

According to The Washington Post, P-E Trump made 282 promises during the campaign. Blocking Muslim entry, Building That Wall and reducing income tax rates are all declared “first day in office” issues. Where will he find time that day to repeal Obamacare? In a week’s time, we will find out the new administration priorities and there will be more information provided when P-E Trump delivers his first State of the Union message. Talk about living in interesting times.

I have one other thought. For the past eight years, there has not been so much as a whiff of Presidential scandal. If nothing else, President Obama showed himself to be an honest, principled and decent man. Sadly, the reverse seems to be the case for the new incumbent of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.