Happy New Year, 2017.

 

It is a marvellous sentiment, wishing others a Happy New Year and having it reciprocated. At family and friendship levels, I expect the offering is sincere, promising new and better beginnings but in politics, that is likely to be as far from the truth as one can get.

Despite the assurances and wishes of politicians for a Peaceful New Year, I see no joy for the occupants of Aleppo, nor for Syria as a whole. I hear criticisms of western governments for the "failure" to get involved but history teaches us not to get involved in other people's civil wars. So, plaudits for Russia and Turkey? Doubtful.

In UK, the burning issue for 2017 is bound to be Brexit. I anticipate a dog's brexit. Leavers, Remainers and Remoaners will not alter their views to make the New Year a happy one. Come the summer, when British holidaymakers will feel the cost of the Euro or US Dollar in their wallets, there will be more Remoaners. A price hike in gasoline is on the cards, too, as oil is priced in Eurodollars.

What of America? Since early November, real politics has been cocooned by speculation. The bar on a Trump presidency has been lowered so much, it’s hardly visible. During the campaign, Trump made almost 300 promises, several about what he would do on his first day in office, such as repeal Obamacare. Quite what will happen on 20 January is anyone's guess. I am not a fortune teller. However, it is relevant to remember that an American President cannot make new laws. Under the Constitution, this role is for Congress.

What of Trump's cabinet? I admit I know almost none of those named and nothing of their qualifications nor history, save what has been written in the press. However, Trump seems to be appointing mostly men in his own image, people who are uber wealthy with business backgrounds and no political experience.

It might sound positive to ask big business to move its skills into government. However, I have no evidence that it works. John Kennedy appointed the CEO of Ford Motors, Robert McNamara, to lead the US Defence Department. Under his leadership, in conjunction with President Johnson, McNamara escalated the Vietnam War, leading to a disastrous recession for the American economy, ignominious defeat and serious social unrest within the States.

In UK, Prime Minister Gordon Brown elevated Alan Sugar to the House of Lords to assist and oversee small and medium businesses. Sugar was a brilliant marketer and salesman of Amstrad computers. Then he made a fortune in commercial property. He starred¸ equivalent to Trump, in Britain's version of The Apprentice. How did he fare in government? He resigned before Brown could tell him, "You're fired."

Another Gordon Brown appointment from outside politics was Sir Ara Darzi, later Lord Darzi, who took a major role in reorganising the NHS. He lasted longer than Sugar but his reforms have had minimal effect. Some would argue they have been damaging in the long term.

Before any of you point the finger at me and ask what I would have done better, it is my firm belief that politics and policy should be left to experienced politicians and public servants who actually know what they are doing far better than me. Certainly bring in expertise from other sectors but put them in charge? Where is the evidence that this works.

I hope I am wrong about Trump's cabinet but what political experience has a head of big oil when dealing with Heads of State around the world? Political life is not an oil deal, nor does the oil business necessarily equip someone to be effective when plunged in the murky side of foreign policy and the deals that are needed to make the world go round. Mind you, it could be argued that the real fear is the vested interests of business, shaping foreign policy decisions to the advantage of big oil and the detriment of American citizens. But I’m delving into speculation.

I wish you all a very Happy and Peaceful New Year. For those of you who, like me, love watching the machinations of D.C., it is going to be interesting, fascinating and probably quite scary.