All in Shakespeare

It’s an old political leaders’ trick. When things are going badly at home, stir up trouble abroad. Hence, last week, Mr Trump boarded Air Force 1 with his entourage of Trump relatives and travelled east. Saudi Arabia was a triumph; huge business deals amounting to billions of dollars were signed off. Then to Israel and Palestine, followed by Rome and Brussels, where the “leader of the free world” barged his way through the crowd of NATO VIPs so he could appear front and centre. His smug look and supercilious grin made him look like the boastful bully in the playground. Finally at the G7 meeting in Taormina, he declined to walk with his fellow leaders. Was that a demonstration of “America First”?

Meanwhile, back home, the Republican Party was getting hit left, right and centre. Mr Trump will find it hard to avoid responsibility, even though he was abroad and the events were not entirely his fault. Let’s start with Greg Gianforte. In a special election in Montana for its Congressional seat, Gianforte was going to win for the Republicans by miles. However, a few days before the vote, he assaulted a journalist from The Guardian, a UK newspaper, and has been charged with misdemeanour assault.

The Missoulian,  Montana’s largest circulation newspaper, said “there is no doubt that Gianforte committed an act of terrible judgment that, if it doesn’t land him in jail, also shouldn’t land him in the U.S. House of Representatives.” Whilst the fall-out will disappear in a while, the 24/7 news machine will hound Gianforte, who won the seat, and his Party, for imitating Trump’s poor impulse control. Is Gianforte’s behaviour further evidence of the tribalism entering American politics? I hope not but Speaker Ryan has another headache to look forward to when Gianforte takes his seat in the House. This one isn’t over.

Next, Attorney General Jeff Sessions is back in the news but in a way that casts the executive branch in a bad light. Last March, Sessions recused himself from investigations related to the 2016 campaign for the White House in relation to meetings with Russian government representatives. It transpires that Sessions has not disclosed dozens of meetings with foreign ambassadors. Sessions says he was told by the FBI that disclosure was unnecessary. Sessions cancelled appearances due to be made before two congressional committees, claiming an unspecified scheduling conflict. Well, Mr A.G., Congress is like an elephant. It won’t forget.

On top of this, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has been cited a “person of interest” by the FBI. For all anybody knows, Mr Kushner is completely innocent of wrongdoing. The FBI is merely seeking information from a willing participant but it’s the perception versus reality game that seems to count these days. The Russian Interference Investigation by both Congress and the FBI will ramble along throughout the summer and when Congress reconvenes after the summer recess, I suspect that other high-ranking members of the administration will find feet held to the fire. Mike Flynn, the sacked NSA Director and Paul Manafort, Trump’s sacked campaign manager will both have interesting tales. In the meantime, Kushner is the first person in this potential scandal to bring problems into the West Wing home.

Far more serious and immediate is the state of America’s tax finances. According to Michael Mulvaney, the Director of the Office of Budget Management, tax receipts are “coming in a little bit slower than expected.” This statement may underscore a situation where the federal government runs out of money this summer. The Continuing Resolution agreed in Congress to fund the government through to end September needs political tweaking. Will Congress agree to raise the US debt ceiling before recess? The Freedom Caucus, some thirty Republican members of the House of Representatives, is already on record that it will refuse to agree any CR extension without budget cuts to match the expected expenditure. So, Congressional Republicans need help from House Democrats, who may come to the administration’s help at a price. For example, the Democrats may demand the Republicans end new legislation on healthcare attempting to defeat Obamacare.

 

The crucial effect is that Republicans may find themselves going into next year’s 2018 mid-term elections without a big ticket items to show to their supporters. Do remember the Republicans hold the White House and both Houses of Congress, as well as a notional majority on the Supreme Court. Despite all these advantages, they will look impotent.

More trouble for Trump: this week, the Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan body, “scored” the House American Healthcare Bill, the legislation to be introduced to repeal and replace Obamacare. Before Trump’s trip, the House had passed the Bill before CBO’s commentary. CBO’s main findings have now been published: 23million more Americans will be uninsured by 2026; more important, 14 million will be uninsured in the first year and the 50-64 year-old group will be the hardest hit; the federal deficit will reduce by only $119 billion, not the Executive prediction of $150 billion. Some 20 Senators from those states where Medicare expanded under Obamacare, including Senator Capito (West Virginia), have already expressed concern that millions of their voters will be left in the lurch. The hidden meaning is the Bill will fail in the Senate if major changes are not made. But will the House agree those changes? There is a major fight in the making.

And finally, if all this wasn’t enough, Trump is going to be red-faced because of another broken election promise. During last year’s campaign, Trump made a pledge to voters in Indiana that jobs at the air-conditioning manufacturer, The Carrier Corporation, would be saved. His words: “there is a 100 per cent chance the jobs will be saved. Last week, Carrier announced it will cut 632 workers from its Indianapolis plant and move the jobs to Mexico. This has to be a huge embarrassment to Trump and a major dent to his personal credibility, especially as he tweeted last November and December how he had saved the jobs.

These are just a few of the many problems that the President is facing on his return to Washington. No doubt one solution for him will be to take a golf vacation. If so, he should beware of any bad golf shot because that will get politicized. It is said that “it’s all in Shakespeare.” If so, may I quote from Henry IV Part II: “uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.”