2020: Who Will Lead the Democratic Party?

It is often said that a week is a long time in politics. If so, three years is a political millennium. But the Republicans are reeling. The White House seems to be in chaos and The Republicans in Congress are wobbling, thus it is reasonable to commence thinking about who might lead the Democratic Party in upsetting its opponents into the 2020 elections.

At the moment, fate is suggesting that the house on Pennsylvania Avenue is theirs for the taking next time around. But which Democrat will make it through the primaries and into the Presidential election? I have not checked the usual web sites like five thirty eight or Larry Sabato. The vast majority of professional observers got the 2016 result spectacularly wrong so why should they be accurate now? Bearing in mind I have no crystal ball, the following is mere conjecture.

First, the Democratic old guard. Supporters of Hillary Clinton will want their champion to make a third try for President. I don’t see this happening. Defeats by Obama (2008) and Trump last time out, as well as her age, mitigate against another run. Likewise, Bernie Sanders and his left wing agenda will find limited support but he does not appeal nationwide, and he is also too old. The House Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi and the Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Shumer, are both getting on. Neither has ever voiced the desire to live in The White House.

Second, I suspect there will be a new Democratic order in the Party leadership soon, probably before the 2018 mid-terms. If the new leader is to emerge from the Senate, Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) arguably will be the front runner. She has strong qualifications, both as a Harvard Law School professor and US Senator. She has gained popularity nationwide for her attacks on the banks and the financial industry. She is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, which would bolster her foreign policy and national security experience. However in 2020, she will be 71 years old.

If Warren fails, Tim Kaine, (Virginia) Clinton’s running mate last year, must have a chance. He gained national recognition but he is regarded as somewhat dull. He did himself no favours in his debate with now Vice-President Mike Pence. But he has solid Democratic credentials. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) has attracted attention from the media including the influential New Yorker magazine which described her as, “popular, practical, appealing and progressive.” She favours ‘no-nonsense’ politics which will appeal in the Rust Belt states won by Trump. However, she does not have much of a national profile.

Corey Booker (New Jersey), one of only three African-Americans in the Senate, is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. He is said to be media-wise and has the qualities of a street-fighter. He is hardly a liberal, but he might be able to unite the progressive and centre-left Party members. He is well known in his state and within the Washington Beltway but, like Klobuchar, he lacks a nationwide profile.

Amongst the governors who may seek the Presidency is Andrew Cuomo of New York. His late father, Mario, famously refused the opportunity in 1992. Andrew Cuomo leads a large, liberal state but he has positioned himself as a centrist, at a time when the Party is left leaning. Where would he find a power base in the primaries? Another ex-governor is Deval Patrick (Massachusetts), who was talked of by many political commentators, including David Axelrod, as a potential successor to Obama. However, he left office in 2015and may not want to return to the political boxing ring. He is now a partner at Bain Capital, which will hardly endear him to the left and centre of the Party.

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There are other Senators and Governors who may join the pack. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Chris Murphy (Connecticut), Kamala Harris (California), as well as Governor John Hickenlooper (Colorado), are among those capable of throwing their hat into the ring.

If the Democrats take a leaf out of the Republican book and opt for a candidate without elected political experience, two names occur to me. The first is Oprah Winfrey. Why not? Like Trump, she is rich and hosts a reality television show. Unlike Trump, she is a trusted celebrity. She was an enthusiastic backer of President Obama. Might she be tempted into a race?

The second is Michelle Obama. As First Lady, she enhanced her reputation as a people person, especially when appearing in James Corden’s Carpool Karioke. During her eight years in the White House, she enjoyed huge popularity, particularly with those who hold strong liberal ideals. She dignified the office of First Lady and in the 2016 campaign she made memorable speeches. At the Democratic Convention, she poured scorn on Trump for his hurtful, hateful language about women. Mrs Obama has insisted she will not run for office for family reasons. I doubt whether she will be persuaded otherwise but she would be a formidable candidate, uniting black and women’s voters.
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n three years’ time, if I am spared, I will take another look at this blog and if any named above are in the mix, I’ll remind you. If not, I’ll stay quiet! Whatever else, it has been a huge relief this week avoiding writing about Mr Trump.