President-Elect Trump: Deja Vu? Here We Go Again.

After last week's shock result in America's presidential election, some reactions were not surprising. Street demonstrations from Oregon, through Minnesota to New York State allowed people to vent. By and large, the protests were peaceful. One complaint was that “Hillary won the popular vote.” So what? It is the Electoral College, a device of the Founding Fathers to ensure the there was a safety valve on the people’s decision, who decide. I heard nothing about a Constitutional change during the election race.

The media blamed Trump’s win on everything and everyone except themselves. The much vaunted web sites, Five Thirty Eight and Crystal Ball, came up with convoluted reasons for their inaccurate forecasts. I'm still waiting to read how the Huffington Post explains away its forecast that President-Elect Trump had a less than 2% chance of winning.

My American friends and relations are in both despair and denial. The voters' choice has rocked them to their very core. They cannot understand how a man who is a proven liar and cheat, a misogynist, xenophobe and womaniser, a racist who wants to remove millions of people and prevent entry to others because of their religion, could become chief executive. “He is also a bankrupt,” one friend observed, forgetting that American bankruptcy laws are a weapon in the hands of the bankrupt.

This has happened before. In the 1980 election, a week before voting the polls had Jimmy Carter well in the lead. Reagan was toast. The polls were wrong. I was in Florida with a group of Republican-leaning lawyers two weeks after the election. They were in despair. They could not understand how such a bozo could make it to the White House. They forgot or ignored that Reagan had been a union negotiator and a two term Governor of California. And he was the man who indeed made America great again in the minds of many Americans.

Both Reagan and Trump had reached the age of 70 when elected. Reagan had retained his life-saver physique. Within two days of major surgery after being shot, Reagan appeared at a hospital window in a photo opportunity that made him resemble Tarzan. Trump is clearly overweight and apparently not at the peak of physical fitness. This may well operate to his detriment. The Presidency is not just mentally gruelling.

On the 20th January, 2017, Trump will be inaugurated. (Please note this correction. Last week, I wrote 9th January.) He has already indicated watering down some policies. For example, Obamacare is likely to be amended, not repealed. But he has many an albatross around his neck. The Wall, Banning Entry to Muslims, The Tax Cut, ending America’s participation in NATO. The State of the Union Address in January will be an interesting guide to Trump’s thoughts about the future.

No matter how big a business Trump has run, he is going to find governing is a major step up by a factor of 100. Will he manage? Well, preliminary indications are that he will be supported by former administrators of the Bush era and consultants and lobbyists from K Street. "He is meant to be draining the swap,” is a point forcefully made. Maybe his choices show the need for insiders to resolve the many problems that exist in dealing with special interests. What legislation will he seek introduced in Congress? Does he really expect the legislators to vote against receipt of funding from lobbyists?

I have also heard it said that with a Republican Congress, Trump can do what he likes. This shows a lack of understanding of the American political system by those advocating the point. The Republican controlled Congress may seek to legislate on programs to which Trump is opposed. How does he propose to wrangle Congress when he has never played the game? He does not have a track record as a team player.

I am keeping an open mind on the Trump administration but I believe the Achilles heel will be The Trump Corporation. From 20th January, 2017, all Trump’s assets will be placed in a blind trust and Trump will be barred from taking any action at all in relation to his businesses. Whoever he appoints or chooses to run the business, even his sons, cannot discuss the businesses with him, let alone allow him to make decisions. Will Trump be able to stop himself from doing the wrong thing? If he breaks the law, the Democrats will be onto him, demanding impeachment.

I am not saying that under Trump all will be well. It won't but is it ever? I suspect that what we saw of Trump in the campaign is the real Trump and he is more likely than not to upset the apple cart both at home and abroad. I expect this time around, the 100 day honeymoon afforded to new presidents will be more myth than reality. But let's examine the administration’s proposals and consider the 4,000 plus political appointees before condemning Trump out of hand.