But You Said!

The American people, in their infinite wisdom, have spoken. Less than 60 million of the 200 million eligible voters have chosen Donald Trump as their President and have also elected sufficient numbers of Republicans to Congress to hold majorities in both Houses. So I got one prediction right, that there would be no change in the House of Representatives.

To explain, I read daily The Washington Post and The Huffington Post. I also follow Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Five Thirty Eight, Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. Yesterday The Huffington Post stated that Trump’s chances of success was less than 2%. The Washington Post was not so bullish. They put Trump’s chances in the low 20% range. The election web sites all had Hillary Clinton well ahead. Also, all these publications had the Democrats taking control of the Senate, save one which had it as a dead heat. Yes, I was wrong but so were all these professionals and pretty well every other professional pundit and web site.

It is dangerous to have a knee-jerk reaction to this type of news. Immediately, there is nothing that Trump can do. He is President-Elect. He has no legal powers during Transition; he has to wait until he swears the oath of office. But on 8^th January, 2017, he will be sworn in, by which time he will have appointees for all cabinet posts as well as many senior civil service and political posts. There are some 4,000 jobs within his patronage, most subject to Senate approval but with a Senate majority, most confirmation hearings will be formalities. Trump must be ready to hit the ground running.

Who were the winners and losers last night? The list is endless. Beginning with the losers, here are three. Trump is on record that on his first day in office, he will repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better. The Affordable Care Act is an Act of Congress which only Congress can repeal but the Congressional Republicans want the Act scrapped. They don’t want it replaced. There are more than 20 million Americans signed up to Obamacare. They must be very worried about how they will pay for healthcare if Trump keeps only half his word and Congress limits itself to repeal only.

Next on the list is women. I’m not talking about Trump’s sleaziness and misogyny. I’m thinking about the new Supreme Court Justice appointee, the ideological majority of the Court and the probable onslaught by pro-life interests to water down or repeal Roe v Wade, which legalises abortion in the United States. Trump has said that women should receive some sort of punishment if they abort a foetus. Have no doubt that the religious right will seek to hold Trump’s feet to the fire on this one. Finally, one woman might suffer personally. Trump supporters want to “lock up” Hillary Clinton and Trump has encouraged the hatred. Will he seek to have her prosecuted? He has said so on many occasions. I am unaware of any crime committed by this hard-working but unpopular lady. I truly hope this idea dies a death.

Are there winners? Trump has campaigned on “drain the swamp.” He refers to the powers of special interests in Washington, the lobbyists on K Street who wield enormous power, although not elected. It would be interesting to see how Trump approaches the problem, which really is just a process issue. Since most members of Congress rely on lobbyists for funding, will they follow Trump’s lead and become turkeys voting for Christmas? And if they refuse Trump, what will he do about “the swamp”?

The construction business will be lining up for contracts to repair and rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges and the rest of American infrastructure. This is sorely needed. However, how will Trump finance the vast cost? He says the national debt is too large. At $20 trillion, the debt is a figure that I, as an ordinary mortal, can’t contemplate. If he borrows to pay for the works, while keeping debt at its present level, other areas of the US budget will be cut. That’s a recipe to hurt the poor, the very people he has said he will support. “Campaign in poetry, govern in prose,” is a well-known saying. Let’s face it, governing American style means someone gets screwed.

The first order of business on 8^th January should be the Continuing Resolution, which has kept America’s federal government funded until 9^th January. I expect the CR will be extended while the Trump administration and Congress agree a budget. However, there is Trump’s promised and much vaunted tax cut to 15%. Of course, Trump will not benefit personally. He doesn’t pay federal income tax. Smart! Even with Republican majorities in Congress, there could still be blood on the floor on this one.

I don’t want to consider America’s relations with the rest of the world. Abandoning NATO, tearing up trade treaties, building a wall on the Mexican border, banning Muslim visitors and removing “illegals” could turn the US into a pariah state. I hope not. The free world needs America. However, this leads me to the biggest winner of the night, Vladimir Putin, who must be laughing in his vodka.

Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson said a week is a long time in politics. The next two years until the 2018 mid-terms will feel like an aeon.