It seems to be fate that the
USA and UK are linked closely in many ways. Currently, both are facing
political crises of huge proportions. Until Friday, the federal government
remained shut down for 35 days. The UK government has crashed itself into a hopeless
Brexit position so no matter what it does, it hits a brick wall on negotiations
with the EU, not to mention its own supporters.
There is a ‘who rules’ fight in Westminster, not between the
political parties but between the executive and the legislative. A week or so
ago, Mrs May’s government tabled a motion about House of Commons future
business for the week ahead and for Brexit specifically. These kinds of motions
can only be proposed by government and cannot be amended, according to parliamentary
precedent. But such precedent is not enshrined in law.
Conservative back-bench MP, Sir Dominic Grieve, tabled an
amendment for the House to debate, whereby the legislative branch would be able
to challenge the power of the executive. The Speaker, John Bercow, had to decide
whether the Grieve amendment should be selected for debate. Against strong advice
given to the Speaker by his own experts, he decided to have the amendment
debated.
There was an almighty explosion from the executive but the
Speaker justified his decision on grounds that members of the Commons had the
right to be heard. What followed was administration spin, especially saying the
Speaker was pro-Labour. This is odd as he is a Conservative Party MP, although,
as Speaker, he is expected to be impartial.
When a Speaker retires, he or she is usually offered a seat
in the House of Lords as a reward for services given. The administration let it
be known that no such offer would be made to Speaker Bercow. How petty, how
mean-spirited, how low. What an abuse of power by Mrs. May and her side-kicks in
retaliation for what I view was a worthy move by the Speaker to redress the
balance between an overwhelmingly powerful executive against a weak legislature.
The Brexit battle continues on all fronts.
In USA, the federal government shutdown was partially based
on ideology. The President and many Congressional Republicans believe the illegal
immigration problems on the southern border will be resolved by the
construction of a very expensive Wall, to be funded by the taxpayer. The
Democrats disagree. The argument is not new. President Bush (43) authorized
building a 700 mile stretch more than a decade ago and the program was
supported by then Senator Obama.
A week ago, Trump sought to break the impasse with the
Democrats. He proposed a deal to end the
shutdown but Democrats rejected it, crucially before he began to speak. The
rejection came as no surprise. Trump’s deal offered temporary concessions on
the status of threatened Dreamers migrant groups. He retained his demand for funding
the border wall. Before the President took the podium, newly installed House Speaker,
Nancy Pelosi,
panned his proposal. “Democrats were hopeful that the president was finally
willing to re-open government and proceed with a much-need discussion to
protect the border,” she said. “Unfortunately … his proposal is a compilation
of several previously rejected initiatives, each of which is unacceptable and
in total do not represent a good faith effort to restore certainty to people’s
lives. It is unlikely that any one of these provisions alone would pass the
House, and taken together, they are a non-starter.”
The Democrats held the
shutdown political high ground so why would such an experienced politician like
Pelosi spend her political capital so clumsily? It equated to a refusal to
negotiate and a demand that the President withdraw his Wall budget proposal. Speaker
Pelosi made her Party look as intransigent and unreasonable as the Republicans.
How did Trump react? First, he retaliated
with a refusal to allow members of Congress the use of a military jet for their
proposed secret trip to Afghanistan to visit troops. Trump likes to present
himself as someone who does not back down, although he changes his mind frequently.
When the Congress delegation booked commercial flights, information which
should have been kept confidential, the Trump administration released
information about the trip to a war zone. Had the trip gone ahead, it would
have been incredibly dangerous thing to do and Trump must have known this. No
surprise: Pelosi cancelled.
Relations
between Trump and Pelosi, have assumed the character of a schoolyard spat, in
the process all but extinguishing any remaining hopes that the partial government
shutdown will end anytime soon. Last week, there was an effort in Congress to
pass Bills and end the shutdown. They failed.
I think Frank Sinatra expressed
it best when he said, “dobedobedoo.” Makes as much sense as anything being said
and done by the politicians in Westminster and Washington!
************
I wrote this Blog on Friday.
That night, the President waved a white flag, temporarily ending the partial
shutdown after 35 days and without securing any funds for his Wall. There will
be a continuing resolution until 15th February, to give the
President and Congress time to hammer out a final budget deal.
I see three immediate reasons for Trump’s climb-down. First, Trump likes distraction
tactics. The arrest of his longtime adviser, Roger Stone, by Robert Mueller is very
bad news for Trump. Stone is mired in the alleged collusion with Russians
before the 2016 election. Stone’s arrest will be replaced in the headlines with
the temporary ending of the shutdown.
Second, political pressure. Bad news for
the administration built over the New Year. Suddenly, last week there was a
shortage of air traffic controllers, causing significant flight cancellations
and delays. Third, to cut his losses, Trump needed to act quickly. He can now
go to the House of Representatives to deliver his State of the Union address
this week, something Pelosi had denied him, on grounds it was unfit to do so
during a shutdown.
For me, the narrative is that the self-proclaimed dealmaker capitulated,
caved, gave in, surrendered and lost. This is the same man who declared “I am
proud to shut down the government.” He tried to dodge that perception by
loading his speech with the usual graphic and gory claims about of drugs and
violent criminals pouring over the US-Mexico border. Where is the evidence?
Trump warned that, without a fair deal from Congress, the shutdown might
resume, or he might declare a national emergency to get the funds from
elsewhere. I wish Trump and his advisers would read the law. He can only use funds
from the existing Homeland Security budget. He cannot override Congress to grab
additional funds. Anyway, if Trump declares “a clear and present danger,” I am
sure Congressional Democrats would retaliate with injunctions and law suits.
They know a busted flush when they see one.
The hard right, who have been urging Trump to fight for the Wall to the
bitter end, are furious. Ann Coulter, author of In Trump We Trust, tweeted: “Good news for George Herbert Walker
Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President
of the United States.”
At long last, Trump is getting
a taste of the real Washington. He can no longer act like a spoiled child and
without restraints. His best hope is the Democrats, led by Pelosi, will overreach
in their conduct of the negotiations to settle the budget and cause Americans
to sympathize with Trump. Could this happen? Well, the Democrats have often
proved they are shortsighted enough.
I believe Trump is a blip on
the roster of American presidents, one who will disappear soon enough.
Americans are starting to realize they don’t need a Phineas T. Barnum to head
their government. Trump should stick to the circuses he loves and leave
governing to the grown-ups.
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