Chickens Home to Roost

        

Donald Trump now has an entry in the Guinness Book of Records. He has presided over the longest federal government shutdown in history. What started as a dubious policy to keep Mexican illegals from USA moved into a political issue of principle and developed into open warfare when the House of Representatives refused to find the dollars for more construction. The Democrats are adamant they will not fund Trump’s Wall. Trump won’t give way. The Senate Republicans could break the log jam by passing a “clean bill” which would approve all the budget items except the Wall.

The Democrats, the Republicans and the President are into face saving. The Democrats don’t seem to want to come up with something which Trump and his Senate colleagues can accept. Trump is adamant he will not budge. McConnell is sitting on his hands. I have already made other suggestions of how to break the log jam. No need to repeat them. Currently public opinion is not on Trump’s side. The Huffington Post has a 50% plus poll which blames Trump and the Republicans. More significantly, only 25% of voters care. This number will rise when services slop down or stop.

The shutdown is also a distraction for what is coming down the Trump pipe. Over the next few weeks, Trump will have to find time for a number of issues, all of them with a crisis potential. Let’s start with Syria. When will the Trump administration actually decide on its position? In December, Trump announced an immediate total withdrawal of troops, causing senior people including Defence Secretary Mattis, to resign. The U turn last week found NSC adviser, John Bolton, walking back Trump’s announcement. Evidently, there would be no troop withdrawals until certain conditions were met. This was followed almost immediately by a Pentagon statement that troop withdrawal had begun. 

Maybe Americans don’t care about the yo-yo White House strategy but America’s allies will have little or no faith and reliance on the Trump administration if this is how they behave. Trump’s political capital with America’s allies must be almost spent.

The new House has already bared its teeth. In their first week as a majority, House Democrats introduced legislation requiring background checks on all gun sales. The new laws have little chance of surviving in the Senate but background checks are popular. Polling shows a 90% support. Some Republican Senators up for election next year may well support the legislation. The gun lobby will likely ensure that sufficient numbers of Senators block the laws on grounds of ‘a slippery slope’ leading to more stringent gun laws. But the Democrats will be victorious in the court of public opinion.

In the same week, the House Democrats forced the House Republicans to vote on a bill allowing the House to intervene in a lawsuit relating to the Affordable Care Act. ACA, known as Obamacare, was declared unconstitutional in a federal court, broadly because of the requirement for citizens to pay a fine if they had no health insurance cover. All but three House Republicans voted against the bill. The Democrats got exactly what they wanted. The prejudice the Republicans will experience is extreme. Obamacare is popular. There will be more health-related votes to hammer home the Democrat’s position that Republicans want a healthcare system only for the wealthy.

Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney, will testify in public before the House Oversight Committee on February 7^th. Cohen has already implicated Trump in paying off women who alleged affairs with the President. I suspect this will be compelling to viewers. In 1975, John Dean, Nixon’s attorney, testified to the Senate Watergate Committee. He broke all kinds of records for daytime viewing. Cohen is a man scorned without hope of a pardon. He is also keen to clear his name. Soon, television’s talking heads will be speaking of little else. The Trump spin machine will be at full force to damage Cohen. It will be the stuff of soap opera.

Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was summoned to the Hill for a closed-door, classified session with the House Oversight Committee, who wanted to know why the sanctions on business with Russia were lifted for three Russian companies. Democrats at the meeting leaked their annoyance at the lack of information provided by Mnuchin. This one will run. Trump can expect that every transaction by his administration that has a whiff of wrongdoing will be investigated. If Mnuchin, ex Goldman Sachs, has been involved in something wrong at Trump’s behest – and I have no evidence he has - he will be sure to keep himself out of jail by talking.

If all the above is not enough for the President, the Mueller Report won’t remain pending for much longer. If the Report contains dynamite, the resulting explosion might lead to the end of the current presidency. Trump conducts his presidency as if it were a reality TV show. A painful but speedy termination of the Presidency for the many who cannot stand Trump might seem appropriate. For me, a Congressional censure is the best option. Impeachment is not a realistic option while Senate Republicans remain loyal but censure would be a killer blow to this vain man who believes he can do no wrong. I am definitely watching the D.C. space.

There are probably another cart-load of issues that are awaiting the President’s attention but the above is surely sufficient to keep him occupied but not off the golf course. He will have a busy winter.