The November Mid-Term Elections.

In November, America goes to the polls. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as well as 34 seats in the U.S. Senate. In addition, there are 33 Governors’ mansions, some of which may find new occupants, as well as innumerable other elections at the state level. If a democracy is judged solely on the amount of vote options given to the ordinary citizens, America would be Trump’s favourite, Number One.

Many observers of American politics have stated that these mid-terms are a test of the Trump presidency. Will America vote to support his policies or will there be a national thumbs down? Presently, there is massive instability in the White House. Books, like Robert Woodward’s “Fear” paint a sorry picture of the chief executive and the chaos in the White House. The Mueller Inquiry has bagged a huge prize in the conviction of Paul Manafort. Trump wants to remove Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein from heading the Russia Inquiry but he seems powerless to do so. In addition, the Kavanaugh nomination for the Supreme Court is beleaguered. I’ll say no more on the topic this week. So, if the mid-terms are indeed a test of the Trump administration, there is a public relations mountain to climb.

However, I believe the mid-terms have a modest relevance to approval or disapproval of the Trump administration. Let me explain. The anticipated turnout of eligible voters is approximately 40%. In a presidential election year, the turnout rarely exceeds 60%. If only 40% of voters cast a ballot in November, the inevitable conclusion is that the rest of the voters either don’t care or see no relevance to their lives or believe they are disenfranchised whatever the result. It would be interpreted by observers as a condemnation of the American political system and the lack of nexus between federal politicians and the voters at large. However, some American newspapers suggest the voters are fired up by the administration, both in a good and bad way, and that the turnout may be a lot higher than the norm.

The 115^th Congress will remain in power until January 2019 when new people come and the losers leave. In the House, all 435 seats will be contested. Currently 236 seats are held by Republicans, 193 by Democrats and 6 are vacant. It is rare for a political party to lose its House majority. It has happened only six times since 1945. Why would the House change hands this year? Many political observers predict this will happen but as much depends on local issues as the events in D.C. A Congressman or woman is inclined to listen far more carefully to their constituents who are concerned by local burning issues, rather than do the bidding of the executive branch in Washington. The length of the President’s coat-tails, i.e. his influence as a vote getter, is always less in House elections than the Senate. Therefore the “Trump Influence and Popularity Test” will not be as strong as you might think.

To win the House, the Democrats need 218 seat. Currently, they hold 193, which means they need another 25 seats. This is a tall order. Seats in the House don’t change hands if the holder is believed to have done a good job in his district. I could look at the close races and analyse them but if I did, this blog would increase by ten pages and the reader would be asleep in no time.

What of the Senate? Currently, there are 50 Republican and 49 Democratic senators. The vacant seat was held by John McCain. 34 seats are up for election this year. On the face of it, the Democrats need to hold all their seats and flip just two Republican seats to take control. However, 26 of the seats to be contested are held by Democrats. Only eight contested seats are held by Republicans. Flipping two seats out of eight is a tall order.

I have not yet looked closely at individual races. It’s early. The primaries have only recently been completed. The Senate races may get caught up in what former British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan called “events,” extraneous occurrences that can’t be predicted.  The loss of the Kavanaugh nomination or Mueller and the Russian enquiry can put a spanner in the works.

There are three Senate races where a Republican incumbent is facing a close challenge: Tennessee, Nevada and Texas. Of the three, Texas is the most surprising. The state has not had a US Democratic senator since 1994. The incumbent, Ted Cruz, has national recognition. His opponent, Beto O’Rourke, is depicted by Cruz as a Bernie Sanders-style socialist, seeking to wreck America with left wing policies on healthcare, gun control, climate change and reforming immigration to make it more humane.

The poll swing predictions are wild, from a nine-point lead for Cruz to a two-point lead for O’Rourke. Should O’Rourke be victorious, the Republicans will feel the chill. Without the Texas Electoral College vote in a presidential election, they may as well kiss goodbye to the White House. But these are still early days. Much can happen in five weeks.

This would be so much fun if I didn’t live in a country whose politicians have twisted, turned, lied and tied themselves up in knots, making themselves look like complete idiots and incompetents, whilst leading UK into the Brexit disaster of disasters. So I’m not pointing a finger, or two for that matter.