Mid Term Elections: Redisrtricting

Mid Terms – Redistricting.

I cannot claim the best track record when it comes to predicting American elections. I like to think I came close in the 2016 Presidential election, when I went on record that Trump would come second. I missed but only by one place and that’s no disgrace! Anyway, I am not laying odds on which Party will be the winner in next month polls.

American newspapers, media outlets and political web sites are making their predictions and the opinion polls are all over the place. What is at stake? Republicans currently hold both Houses of Congress. If the Democrats don’t reverse the position, more conservative policies and laws will be approved. There may be more tax concessions for the rich, more damage to Obamacare and Mr Trump may even get his Mexican wall funded. A Democratic held Congress will prevent such a process. Even if the Democrats regain power in just one House, it gives them a valuable bargaining chip in slowing down the Trump administration until the next elections in 2020.

The state elections have caught my eye. This time around, they are really important. Every two years, federal elections are mirrored by most states. Many lawmakers and judges have to ask the state electorate for approval, district by district. This is healthy for the political process. However, it is unlikely that Democrats will overturn Republican state congress majorities in this year’s local elections.

Women’s rights are bound to be an issue. There will be lawmakers who will want to see restrictive abortion laws on the statute books. I don’t see the federal government enacting such laws but a number of states, especially those in the deep South, may be tempted to tell women what they can and cannot do with their bodies. With two new conservative justices on the Supreme Court bench, there is a risk that Roe v Wade will be challenged successfully. Other women’s issues may flounder.

If a state Congress enacts a law, it is not the finish. The state governor has a right of veto. Each state will have its rules about overriding a veto but governors have real power. A governor is the chief executive of the state. It follows that it is crucial for the Democratic cause to win as many of this year’s 36 gubernatorial races as possible.

There is one vital issue that will become front and centre in two years’ time. The American Constitution requires a census and redistricting for state legislatures every ten years, when maps of all election districts have to be redrawn by the lawmakers. A valid redistricting process is open and transparent, allowing communities to ask questions and give input. Redistricting laws are often complex. There are federal statutes which impose requirements that apply to all states: equal population districts, single-member congressional districts and provisions for voting rights. States may impose additional requirements, such as drawing districts that respect existing political boundaries, physical boundaries and or communities of interest; districts that are compact; and districts that are politically fair.

Over the past decade, Republicans have re-drawn district boundaries to their advantage because the Democrats have been locked out of state power in most states since 2010, especially key swing states. According to The Washington Post, three quarters of state congressional districts nationwide are now controlled by the Republican Party. As an example, Florida, where election contests are usually close, has had state Republican control its Congress for the past decade, albeit by small percentage points. This is now the way the local political game is played these days.

In most states, redistricting is carried out by state lawmakers who use new census population data to assess voter numbers. After the 2010 census, Republicans had power to re-draw a huge number of districts, sometimes fairly, other times benefiting the Party by carving out districts friendly to Republican causes and preventing Democrats from winning those districts.

There has been wrongful redistricting in Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan, Trump’s political base. The governors’ seats in these states, as well as Florida, are up for election this time around. At the moment, the polls are showing Democrats in the lead in those states, although the Wisconsin and Florida races are tight.

It is wrong for any political party to enjoy a monopoly over its legislature. The Republican Party controls far too much of America’s political process. Monopoly rule has happened before. In the 1930s, the Republicans did not get a look-in politically. FDR not only enjoyed large majorities in Congress but the Democrats also controlled state and city politics too.

Gerrymandering, the manipulation of district lines to protect or change political power, has become the bread and butter of state politics. Sometimes, the lengths to which politicians will go are staggering. In Texas, it is not unknown for town boundary lines to be drawn in strange designs so that a promising student footballer will attend a high school in a particular district, improving that school’s prospects for the football season.

Should the Democrats regain power in the states, this might be a good thing. However, it is in the nature of politics for the victor to undo what its opponents have done and introduce their own partisan policies. If the Democrats were to do this, what a waste of time the elections would be, not to mention a mockery of the obligation of lawmakers to act in the interests of all voters.