Tipping Point

A tipping point is defined as “a series of small changes or incidents which become significant enough to cause a larger, more important change.” History and politics are replete with tipping points. For example, the Thatcher government was in deep trouble in 1982 but the Falklands war saved both her premiership and, indeed, her political career. The Tory party conference in October 1981 had been alive with dissent. The so-called "wets" were openly conspiring against Thatcher. Bets were being taken against her surviving into the New Year. Well behind in the polls and with the new Social Democratic party challenging both Labour and Conservatives, few believed Thatcher would ever lead her party to another election win. After the Falklands victory, Maggie was unchallenged for almost a decade.

Many believe the tipping point for America’s Great Depression was the Wall Street Crash of 1929. For me it occurred two years earlier when a delegation of commerce and industry leaders met President Coolidge to lobby him to extend more credit to foreign buyers so they could buy more American goods. American manufacturers had massive inventories which were building to dangerous levels. Coolidge’s refusal to lend was the tipping point that led to the Great Depression.
Many believe the tipping point of Watergate was the disclosure of an Oval Office tape recorded four days after the break-in when Nixon joined in with senior aides Haldeman and Erlichman to plot the cover-up. Many times afterwards, Nixon publicly lied about his knowledge of any cover-up.  

Attorney John Dean was the point man for Nixon in the cover-up. By March, 1973, Nixon was under pressure to tell all. He asked Dean to put together a report with everything he knew about the Watergate matter and invited him to Camp David to do so. Dean, as one of the cover-up's chief participants, knew the report-writing task placed him in an impossible position. How could he exonerate himself and other higher ups without telling more lies? He concluded he was being set up for the role of scapegoat by those same higher ups, including the President.

Dean did not complete the report. Instead, he co-operated with Sam Irvine’s Senate Watergate Committee. When one of Irvine’s lawyers asked Dean how he would feel if his discussions with the President were on tape, Dean was ecstatic. He knew his version of events, including the President’s statements, would be verified. This gave the Irvine Committee confidence that their star witness was telling the truth. For me, this is the most crucial event of Watergate. The evidence of a then discredited attorney, Dean, would establish that Nixon lied.

Now readers of The Washington Post are regularly informed about the vast number of lies told by President Trump since he took office. Yesterday, the tally was 4,229 false or misleading statements in 558 days I shan’t enumerate them. There isn’t the room. Recently, Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, was interviewed for the Mueller investigation and large numbers of recordings were seized, including conversations between Cohen and the President. What lies might be disclosed?

Whether recording the President was legal or ethical depends on jurisdiction and New York Bar rules. The tapes will be leaked into the public domain. Indeed, CNN has already aired a 2016 tape where Cohen discusses with Trump burying a story about an alleged Trump affair with Playboy model, Karen McDougal. Trump has denied the affair many times. He would hardly be the first president to have strayed. Starting with Harding, the 20^th century presidential luminaries include, FDR, Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ and Clinton.

 

Last week, senior judicial analyst, Judge Andrew Napolitano, appeared on Fox News to discuss the release of the Cohen recording. Many legal analysts agree there is no crime that took place in the discussion between the two men. But there is still plenty up for debate. “There is an indication of a fraud,” Napolitano explained. “And the significance of that is if the client and the lawyer discuss the commission of a crime, or discuss the commission of a fraud, there is no attorney-client privilege in that conversation.” It appears Cohen and Trump discussed civil fraud. McDougal had been led to believe that she was being paid by a media outlet to run her story, while Trump and Cohen planned never to run it. Instead, they were going to bury it.

Michael Cohen was Trump’s personal lawyer and fixer. He executed the wishes of his celebrity boss. Cohen said he would take a bullet for Trump, even after the President passed him over for a White House job. But after the release of the taped conversation, there is open warfare between these men. Cohen has gone on record:  “I’m not going to be a punching bag anymore.” At the moment, it is just speculation as to the damage that Cohen can do.

During his eighteen months in office, Mr Trump has changed the face of the Presidency. In previous blogs, I have listed his many shortcomings, including his bragging, his disrespect of women, his scant regard for leaders who are allies and his willingness to abandon world institutions and treaties. Yet none of these seemed to have turned American voters to a significant degree. I have no idea of what might be disclosed in the Cohen Tapes but I wonder whether they might be the tipping point to end the Trump Presidency.

At the moment, America is sharply divided in its opinion of the President. Roughly half approve, half don’t, although Trump’s approval ratings have gone south over the past month or so. If there is a tipping point and the public shows signs of moving against Trump in droves, sufficient to cause Congress to consider abandoning him, what should he do?

Unlike Nixon – “the public has to know the President is not a crook and I’m not a crook” - and Clinton – “I did not have sex with that woman, Monica Lewinsky” – if faced with impeachment, he must tell the truth and he should do it before the mid-terms. At the moment Trump enjoys Congressional support. There is not a political majority in the House of Representatives to pass articles of impeachment and there are not 67 Senate votes to convict. The timing of full disclosure now would be good.

Personally, I could not care less about what Trump has done in his private life. If the Democrats press for impeachment on grounds that Trump has lied about his extra-marital affairs, they will be just as hypocritical as the Republicans in the Clinton impeachment. However, colluding with the Russians to alter the outcome of the 2016 election is different. Here we have a breach of federal law.

If Trump has lied, he should admit it. The American public is forgiving by nature. The media will have a field day but even if Congress makes moves against Trump, a censure motion could be negotiated. However, the poison pill could be the Mueller Investigation. I doubt wrongdoing reaches into the Oval Office because the enquiry has taken far too long to arrive at such a conclusion. But if there has indeed been a conspiracy – let’s not call it collusion - between Trump and the Russians, would the American public forgive? Hard to say. This could be a long, hot and difficult summer for Mr Trump.

 

This is my 245^th blog on American politics. It is tempting to keep going until 250 but I have decided to take a break until October. By then, my batteries will be re-charged and I’ll be ready to look at the November mid-terms. In the meantime, a number of things may happen:

·         The Manafort trial is the first prosecution to come out of the Mueller enquiry. So far, nothing has tainted Trump, save that Manafort was his Elect Trump Committee chairman. What more will come out in the trial is speculation at the moment.

·         30^th September is the date when another federal government shutdown will happen if the budget is not agreed. Trump says he will shut the government down if he does not get his budget for the border wall. Will the Republicans cave, bearing in mind the mid-terms?

·         1^st October: A government funding fight could prove a distraction from Republican efforts in the Senate to confirm Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. This confirmation will be ugly. Should confirmation go beyond 4^th November and should the Democrats take control of the Senate, the game will change.

·         Indivisible: a grass roots Democratic organisation which has millions of members. Its mission is to fuel a progressive network of local groups to resist the Trump Agenda. There is a Tea Party feel to the group. To remind you, the Tea Party was a collection of right wing citizens opposing Obama and his policies. Indivisible is one of many Democratic support groups: for example, there is Pantsuit Nation, StandUp Minnesota and Lawyers for Good Government, individually of less significance but collectively, they could make a difference to the mid-term vote. So far, the media has not provided constant and headline coverage of these groups but this could change.

·         4^th November: The run up to the mid-terms promises quite a fight. It’s too early to analyse the details; after all there are still primaries being fought. But it is worth noting that the House of Representatives has changed parties only three times in 60 years. My hunch is that it will remain Republican but non-partisan election analyst David Wasserman believes the Democrats remain substantial favourites. However, conventional wisdom is fallible. Who expected Trump to beat Clinton?

 

Have a good summer.