Nukes and Boasts

If you accept the thrust of last Sunday’s newspapers, we should all be dead or dying from nuclear radiation. Trump’s threat to “go it alone” against North Korea was, evidently, leading to imminent nuclear war. A few journalists tried to provide a balance, noting that the North Korean nuclear threat was mostly empty and estimated that the chances of their dropping a Hiroshima level bomb on Seoul were lower than Watford playing in the Champion’s League next season.  (For my American readers, the Champion’s League is the highest level club soccer competition in Europe and Watford are a middle of the road Premier League side.)

However, the nuclear sabre-rattling by both America and North Korea was taken seriously by much of the media and politicians alike. Some compared the situation to the Cuban Missile Crisis of October, 1962. When I read this over breakfast, I almost choked on my corn flakes. Cuba is 90 miles from Key West. Pyongyang is thousands of miles from America’s shores. Yes, I know if South Korea is attacked by the North, America is likely to respond quickly but the South Koreans have an admirable armoury of anti-missile missiles. And, more important, they refused to ratchet down their deployment, notwithstanding pleas from their allies.

What is Trump’s foreign policy? Once the USA became the world’s policeman, the Truman Doctrine of the 1940s was put in place. It was followed first by Eisenhower’s “brinkmanship and asymmetrical response,” then JFK’s and LBJ’s “flexible and calibrated response” until set aside by Nixon and Kissinger with realpolitik, as they played Russia and China off against each other. And now we have foreign policy a la Trump which seems to be limited to “the new sheriff in town.” Trump has let the Joint Chiefs have their head and last week, they showed off the Mother of All Bombs, to the western media’s delight. MOAB is an eleven ton earthquake bomb. It was dropped in remote Afghanistan. What a really scary move and demonstration of American power! No doubt that will bring the Syrians and North Koreans to the negotiating table! But we should not be dazzled by the technology. In 1944, the RAF dropped ten ton earthquake bombs on the German submarine pens in Peenemunde.

What none of the learned writers mentioned in their stories and blogs was that use by America of a nuclear weapon was an act of war, requiring Congressional approval under the 1973 War Powers Act. Failure to get approval before use of a nuclear bomb would lead not only to impeachment of the President but also criminal prosecution of the Joint Chiefs.  Mr Trump may have many “toys” at his disposal but he should heed the words of LBJ who once famously exclaimed to his Secretary of State for Defense about the North Vietnamese, “the only fucking power I’ve got is nuclear power and I can’t use it.” Not only did he know Congress would not approve, notwithstanding the Gulf of Tonkin blank check, but also it would be an act of inhumanity.

I have another serious concern. Last week, Mr Trump announced: “We are sending an armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier, that I can tell you… And I will say this. He [Kim Jong-Un] is doing the wrong thing. He is doing the wrong thing.” Putting on one side the President’s inarticulate and repetitive phrasing, The Guardian observed: “As an explanation of a nuclear crisis, this is right up there with his [Trump’s] February press conference, when he spilled the secrets about his classified briefings on nuclear war with Russia: “Nuclear holocaust would be like no other.” The crucial point is that the vaunted American armada was not sailing towards North Korea. In fact, it was sailing away from Pyongyang, more than 3,500 miles into the Indian Ocean for a joint exercise with the Australian navy.

So, what next for the Trump administration foreign policy? The appointment of Dr Strangelove? These days there are many available car parking spaces at Foggy Bottom, home of the State Department. Important positions have not been filled as part of the effort to neuter and shrink the federal government. As a result, the lack of expertise in American foreign affairs is showing and making America look like an incompetent fool.

However, on a different tack, Mr Trump has not disappointed. I have been awaiting this particular Trump announcement for quite a few days and this week, the boast came: “I have accomplished more in my first 90 days than any previous President.” This statement by any president post 1933 suggesting that his first 100 days somehow topped Roosevelt’s achievement is rank stupidity. LBJ, Reagan and Obama are credited with significant legislative achievements early in their first terms, but much of their success generally came after the first 100 days. And none of these three Presidents claimed to be more successful than FDR.

In FDR’s first 100 days, he addressed enormous problems including a third of America’s workforce being out of work and the wholesale failure of the banking system, as well as the vast numbers of people rendered homeless, as the Great Depression reached its nadir. In his first 100 days, FDR persuaded Congress to pass 15 major bills and over 70 Acts. The legislation reshaped every aspect of the American economy and life: banking, industry, agriculture and social welfare. The administration’s policy was clear: Relief, Recovery and Reform. This is not the place to explore the detail of FDR’s achievements. Suffice it to say he is one of the most revered and respected men ever to have occupied the White House.

In contrast, what has Trump actually achieved? He and his group of businessmen friends, the men from Exxon and Goldman Sachs, have attacked America’s status quo to give nightmares to millions of people whose health is insured under Obamacare. Visiting Muslims are no longer welcome stateside. Regulations protecting the health and welfare of citizens are being rolled back in the name of big business. And by changing its rules, the Senate has approved the appointment of a right-wing Trump nominee to the Supreme Court. 

President Trump, you would be well advised not to make a big deal of your record to date. The evidence not only shows you not coming close to matching FDR. It also demonstrates you have little grasp of governing and rely far too much on bullying, sound bites and self-aggrandisement to try to get the job done, as you define it.