Who Will Make it to the White House?

One of the benefits of a western democracy at election time is the vote of a poor person counts no less than that of a billionaire. The choice of a teenager ranks equally with a senior. No person has more power at a ballot box than any other, unless there is election fraud. However, democracy has its disadvantages. The vote of a person who has studied and analysed the issues of the day is worth no more than that of a bigoted dullard. As Winston Churchill observed, “Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others.”

On Friday morning, USA Today proclaimed that Donald Trump had won the battle of the National Conferences. If I understand the article correctly, the tabloid's conclusion was based on Trump's mere survival as his Party’s nominee. Talk about setting the benchmark low.

The Presidential campaign will now start in earnest. I am not a psephologist so I will refrain from forecasting on Trump winning states like Ohio and Pennsylvania if he is to make it to the White House. Instead, I will assess the importance of this Presidential election and what it means to America.

Abraham Lincoln is often quoted as saying, "you can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.” Yet Trump is trying to do the latter. His policy for problem solving seems to be “leave all to me.” Clinton’s reaction was, “really, really.” The Donald suggests he is the only person capable of solving America’s problems as the country is in such a parlous state and the politicians, especially Obama, have failed. If so, will he reduce the West Wing and OEOB staff to a handful? If not, what will the one thousand plus government employees be doing? Is his cabinet to be a collection of stuffed dummies, a collection of yes men who will do as ordered?

Let me compare and contrast the two contenders. Mrs Clinton has a track record of working in teams. Yes, her healthcare initiative as First Lady failed but she has a series of successes in relation to the welfare of children the world over. Her record as US senator shows she is a policy person. Trump is wholly without experience in the political field, let alone governing. He is an isolationist. He wants to build walls to prevent Mexicans crossing the border, he seeks to ban Muslims from entering the States and he would even seek to bar judicial appointments if the candidate has foreign blood.

Look at history, Mr Trump, name one successful Presidential candidate after World War II who ran successfully on an isolationist policy. I thought so. You can't. You need to go back to 1916 when Woodrow Wilson promised to keep America out of the Great War and a year later broke that promise.

In the movie, "Wag The Dog", an enemy was invented and war declared in order to keep an incumbent in office. This is pure Trump. He has based his campaign thus far on fear and hatred of minorities and derision of those who are disabled or "different". He believes it is permissible for a man in his position to threaten violence. Is this the kind of leader Americans truly want? He often says “trust me” which makes me ask, along with Khizr Kan, whether he has read the Constitution, let alone understood it. The most important point in American governance is that trust is not a pre-requisite.

In Mrs Clinton, Americans have someone with political leadership experience, one who is not bigoted, who champions people regardless of race or colour and who is probably as prepared as any post-War candidate for the role of Commander in Chief. True, she has her problems. She is not a great orator, she has made some very public errors and she has popularity issues. But who would Americans want to make the final decision on use of nuclear weapons?

I have heard it suggested quite often that the November election has many elements of Brexit, a substantial percentage of disillusioned voters concerned by immigration and loss of jobs, fuelled by an elite that they think controls their lives. This may be true in part but Trump’s attraction is to a minority of whites whereas Brexit caught the imagination of much of UK, primarily excluding Scotland and London.

I believe Hillary Clinton will win in November. Today, after the usual Convention bounce, she holds a 6 point lead over Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. However, my opinion is not based on polls, policies or politics but on the innate and overriding good sense of the American voter who will not want to be governed by a bully, a racist, a misogynist and wannabe dictator. Historically, what Americans demand of a President is someone who transcends politics, who constantly strives to do what is right and is the chief executive for all Americans. Trump will never fulfil this role.

Next week, I will offer an opinion of what might happen if I am wrong and Trump wins in November. Stay tuned.