The Real 2016 Election: Is Congress in Play?

There is a myth about the office of the American presidency, that the holder is the most powerful man in the free world. A brief study of Article II of the Constitution will dispel the impression. Whilst the title “Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy” is bestowed upon him or her, as well as the right to grant pardons and reprieves, all other executive powers are conferred by Congress or subject to advice and consent of the Senate.

The reality of American power is that it is shared between the Presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court and the three branches struggle with each other to become top dog. The States, too, enjoy powers and rights that are not expressly granted to the three branches by the Constitution. If this sounds complex and difficult, it is what the Framers intended.

The relationship between the executive and legislative branches is strained most of the time. In particular, during the last two years, Republicans have held majorities in both the Senate and the House, and control Congress. This explains why virtually no White House-inspired legislation has been enacted. Should we perhaps think again about the power of the occupier of the Oval Office?

For several months, that part of the American media which follows politics and current affairs has reported on the 2016 race for the White House, almost to the exclusion of Senate and House races. 34 Senators and all members of the House of Representatives are up for election. Let us assume that Mrs Clinton is elected President this November. If Republicans continue to hold majorities in both Houses of Congress, what legislation can she expect to pass? Will Washington gridlock continue? Will she even be able to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court bench?

For me, the most important election in November is for the US Congress. The Republicans need to keep their majorities if they are to stymie another Democratic president. The Democrats need to regain control if they are to get legislation passed or, if Trump wins, to corner him. I cannot look at individual races yet because nominees are not decided. Candidates for most seats, whether in the Senate or the House, have to go through the primary process and this is happening now.

Democrats seem well placed to contest the Senate. They are defending 10 seats compared with 24 for Republicans, who have very few chances to take seats from Democrats. The best opportunities seem to be in Colorado and Nevada but they are long shots. However, the Republicans must be worried. Current polls show a vulnerability in Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and Illinois.

To overturn the Senate Republican majority, currently 54 to 46, the Democrats need 5 gains and no losses. If the Democrats make the eight gains mentioned, they will have a comfortable majority, although not sufficient to defeat a filibuster. In the House, the Republicans have a majority of 33 seats. The Democrats have to turn a 234 to 201 deficit by taking a minimum of 17 seats, which would give the narrowest of majorities.

Unlike local elections in UK which are often a reflection of how the major political parties are faring in Westminster, Congressional elections are often influenced by state, urban and rural issues, so predictability is problematical. Trying to sift the local issues from here in London is difficult if not impossible. Reading The Washington Post and The New York Times is a help but I cannot access small city and town newspapers which are often a much better guide.

At the moment, the Democrats have good news. Donald Trump says he doesn’t care about Congressional races and will offer no help to Republican candidates. However, he is changing his tune, perhaps because the RNC will hold back funds from Trump’s campaign and put the money into Congressional races. Trump needs to learn that he can neither win the election nor govern on his own, a lesson that his opponent clearly understands after so many years in government.

I regard the Congressional elections as the reality of 2016. I shall be watching and holding my breath. Another Republican majority in both Houses will mean at least two more years of rudderless leadership.

 

Two words: Donald Trump.