The US Primaries Begin in Iowa. So Does the Horserace.

At the Sydney Olympics, a short film was shown before the start of every morning, afternoon and evening event in the Olympic Stadium. Part of the film showed an Albanian weightlifter being awarded his silver medal, which he accepted with tears of joy. The caption read, "Who cares who comes second?" The Australian organizers were reacting to the American media coverage of the Atlanta games four years earlier where the reportage concentrated almost solely on either American competitors or gold medal winners of other nationalities. Competing, let alone winning a lesser medal, was regarded as unimportant. The Australians were determined to give a different message in 2000.

We know Americans love winners and often seem to have no time for runners up. However, when the American press covers the Presidential primary season, different priorities seem to apply. Every primary or caucus becomes a day at the races. The press is always asking, who's in the lead, who's falling behind, who won, and who lost?

In Iowa last week, the two leading Democratic candidates, Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, ran neck and neck. Democratic primary rules allocate Convention delegates state by state on a proportional basis, committing those delegates to vote for that candidate on the first ballot. At the moment these two Democratic giants have an equal number of delegates, as they seek 2,382 votes, which will hand the winner a majority and the Presidential nomination at this summer‘s National Convention. In contrast, most of the Republican primaries allocate delegates on first past the post basis, another horse racing analogy.

Interestingly, Paul Rubio has received the accolades and huge press attention for coming third in Iowa. Why? He was beaten by both Cruz and Trump! However, he out-performed expectations. In the early stages of primary season, this is more important than winning, unless a win is not predicted. Back in 1992, during the New Hampshire primary, Bill Clinton's affair with Gennifer Flowers was splashed all over the front pages. The media reported that he would be down and out after the primary but instead of being beaten out of sight, Clinton came second, exceeding the expectations of virtually all the media, which thereby declared him to be the true winner in New Hampshire. The momentum gave Clinton the crucial push he needed to win the nomination.

Generally, America has little time for losers, especially sore losers. Donald Trump's performance post Iowa has been delicious for those people who believe he has no role to play in American Presidential politics. Trump has asked for a re-run of the Republican caucus on the basis that one of his opponents, Cruz, misrepresented the position of another, Carson. This is not only preposterous but it reminds me of the boy in the playground who is losing the game so walks away declaring "it's my ball."

Unsurprisingly, the long list of Republican candidates has already been whittled down. Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Lindsay Graham, and Bobby Jindal, among others, fell at the first fence. If The Donald suffers another loss in New Hampshire this coming week, he may find himself under pressure to scratch and withdraw from the race. However, a repeat of Iowa at Super Tuesday will hole Trump below the waterline. Well you have to allow me a nautical reference. There can only be so many horseracing analogies!