2014 Mid-Terms Part IV: Is the President a Lame Duck?

Joni Earnst Iowa Victory Rally

2014 Mid-Terms Part IV

Is the President a Lame Duck?

One of the first lessons of politics - and here I am talking political theory, not current events - is to understand variables. In other words, you have to ask “what if?” Until Wednesday morning, the what if was limited to whether the Republicans would control both houses of Congress. Now the principal question has moved to “what will happen now?”

The Senator-Elect for Iowa, Joni Ernst, has the answer. “We’ll make the squeal,” she told her supporters at her victory rally. I can’t say when and I can’t say how but one thing of which I am certain is that one day during the next six years, she will rue those words. Back in the 1970s, the Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, said similar words at a Labour Party conference. Yes, he lived to regret it! Labour lost the next election and were out of power for eighteen years.

So, what are the variables? I can’t explore all of them; there are so many. First, let’s examine the position of President Obama. The knee jerk reaction from the talking heads was, “he’s a lame duck.” In reality, has his position changed that much? The Democrats had a narrow majority in the Senate and Republicans have blocked legislation in the House. If Mr Obama has pressing appointments to the court benches, he can fill them before 3^rd January 2015 as filibuster rules don’t apply. After that, he has the power of Executive Order to move legislation forward. If he doesn’t like laws presented by the new Congress, he can get out the veto stamp. The Republicans don’t have the required two-thirds majority in each House to override the veto.

Where Mr. Obama has been weak during his presidency is in foreign affairs. This is his opportunity to build coalitions to deal with Middle East issues like ISIS. He would gain popularity at home by confronting diplomatically any Russian advance into old USSR territory and, generally, facing down Mr. Putin and his administration. The Republicans would look bad if they opposed the President in this area. Perhaps the President should look at Richard Nixon’s track record on foreign policy and learn the lessons quickly.

Second, what of Congress? There is talk of Republican bi-partisanship with the Democrats and the White House. My experience tells me to judge on actions, not words. I doubt that the Republican base will sit idly and allow a spirit of cooperation to develop in the Capitol and along Constitution Avenue. Even though the Tea Party haven’t featured in the mid-term elections, they still have influence.

There will be an early test. It is estimated that some 10 million people reside in America illegally, many for twenty years or more. Vast numbers of the illegals work in jobs that “regular” Americans don’t want to do. This is not new. J. K. Galbraith’s 1992 “Culture of Contentment” spelled it out. The President wants to convert the status of the illegals through an amnesty. Republicans are opposed. It is too soon to judge how the position will resolve itself but the issue will be contentious.

For me, the big test arises on 13^th December. If the Budget Conference committee does not agree the fiscal terms, will the Republicans move to shut down the government? If so, how will they position themselves to blame the White House? When this happened two years ago, the American public was not supportive of the Republican legislators.

Also, will the Republicans look again at an impeachment of Mr Obama, or a prosecution based on illegal use of the Executive Orders power, both of which actions were threatened last month. Nothing happened because Republican polling showed that they were vote losers. However, the right wing of the Party will want to do something to embarrass the President. My view is that both an impeachment and a prosecution are doomed to fail because there are no legal grounds for either action and there are insufficient votes in Congress to convict in an impeachment trial. Shades of Clinton. Furthermore, the voting public will disapprove of the Republicans wasting time and money just to play politics.

So, to conclude, congratulations to the Republicans on their victory but voter turnout was low and all US politicians must be aware of the unpopularity of Congress. The President has two years to change people’s minds about him and his Party and with the daily media concentration he receives, Mr Obama has the opportunity to turn things round and give the Democrats the boost they need for 2016.