The 2014 Mid-Terms Part II. Where are the President’s Coat-Tails?

 In four weeks, America goes to the polls. If a British voter was shown an American voting form, confusion would run amok. Americans vote for all manner of offices, not just seats in the US and State Congresses and Capitols. They vote for judges, sheriffs and yes, even dog-catchers. This is democracy in action.

Mid-term elections are often posed as judgments on the record of the administration and its chief executive. In many mid-term elections, the President and his party receive a slap in the face from the voters. In 1946, Harry Truman saw his party’s majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives disappear. The new Republican Congress’s first act of business was to pass legislation, repeated in the 22^nd Amendment, term-limiting all presidents after Truman. In 2006, George W. Bush saw his Congressional majorities crumble. He was a two-year lame duck.

Americans have a wonderful, old-fashioned expression to assess a President’s popularity; it is a metaphor based on coat-tails, the attire of men in public office in the 19^th century. If the coat-tails are said to be “long,” it means the President is regarded by the public as successful and candidates from his party will seek his personal support. If the coat-tails are “short,” as in 1946 and 2006, candidates from the administration’s party seek to distance themselves from the chief executive. Sadly, this year Mr Obama’s coat-tails don’t seem to exist.

Elections for House of Representatives seats are often governed by local issues but this year seems to be dominated by the perceived lack-lustre second term presidency. There can be no real expectation by the Democrats that they will recover the House of Representatives. The fight is for control of the Senate, where the pundits suggest the Republicans will gain a small majority. The Republicans need to win six seats to gain control but the overall result is still too close to call. States like North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Georgia and Colorado are in play.

What the Democrats need is the October Surprise. Let’s play the “what if” game. What would happen if:

·         US unemployment dropped below 6%, as more jobs are created as a result of administration policy.

·         Sales of new homes rise, proving a revival in the US economy.

·         Growth in new car sales, showing Americans are willing to spend on home-manufactured goods.

·         The US economy is proved to be motoring along and doing far better that the economies of China, Japan and the European Union.

·         More than 7 million Americans have signed up for Obamacare.

·         Low inflation and a strong dollar keeps interests rates low and helps business.

None of the above comes within “what if” because all of them have already occurred. Under Mr Obama, the economy, business atmosphere and access to healthcare have improved for the vast majority of Americans. However, the perception is otherwise. And in politics, perception trumps reality.

What can the President do to lengthen his coat tails? An American led victory over IS would help but this is highly unlikely to happen by November. America and most of its coalition partners will not commit ground forces. Détente with Russia, with Russian forces leaving Ukraine (not the Crimea) might help but would this occur within the next four weeks? I think not! Once again, the perception in America is a failure of leadership by its administration. The President talks about leadership but politicians are judged not on what they say but what they do.

The state of Iowa has a tight Senate race. Joni Ernst, the Republican candidate, has borrowed a plot from Series 7 of The West Wing, when the Democratic presidential nominee, Matt Santos, took time out from the campaign to do his duty as a retired USAF pilot and be re-trained. From trailing in the polls, the Santos character got a huge boost. Life has imitated art, as Ernst has spent two weeks on duty with the Iowa National Guard. The Iowa voters see this as an act of leadership and have given her a six point lead in the polls.

Would it help the Democratic cause if the President took a week out doing military training? As Mr Obama did not serve in the forces, the option is not open to him. Sadly, in both electoral and poker terms, he is looking like a busted flush.