The Weakness of America and its Allies

George Satayana wrote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” The recent aggressive moves by Russia in Crimea and East Ukraine have not been met with force, except by local fighters. So far, the West has limited its response to economic sanctions. There are now proposals by America and the United Kingdom to send arms to the Ukrainians. The Russian invasion and annexation of The Crimea is almost forgotten. It is a fait accomplit.

The big question is, what will Putin do next? Has he designs on Poland or Hungary? Does he intend to restore the CSSR? Will Angela Merkel remain calm when the Red Army is camped on the borders of East Germany?

This weekend, I was asked a question, “why did the World Wars occur?” As an historian, I’m meant to have some of the answers. So, I replied, starting with World War 1. “When the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, Austria-Hungary sent an ultimatum to Serbia with very severe demands. Germany supported Austria’s position. Although the Serbs capitulated to most of the demands, Russia started to mobilize its forces to aid and defend the Serbs. Austria refused to accept the Serbian offer and declared war. As a result of a series of Treaties, Germany, Russia, France and Great Britain were drawn into the conflict.”

As for World War 2, I answered, “Western Europe ignored Hitler’s re-armament of Germany until it was too late to take action and stop it. Japan, bent on empire-building, invaded Manchuria without any real challenge. When America denied Japan access to raw materials, Japan took action by declaring war on America.

Next, I analysed the similarities between the two world wars. Both wars started because the aggressors anticipated no challenge and leadership was weak. In 1914, none of the major powers really expected to fight, despite the nationalistic and jingoistic mood of the countries involved. None of the political leaders were strong enough to prevent mobilization of the Russian and German armed forces. By 1939, the West’s policy of appeasement, as well as the Non-Intervention Pact in Spain, convinced Hitler he would be unchallenged when he swallowed up one country after another. The allies believed his appetite for annexation would be sated but when the Germans occupied Poland in 1939, it was a step too far for Great Britain and France. Just like the run-up to WW1, political leadership was weak.

In both world wars, the Americans stayed out of a perceived local difficulty, not understanding the threat which Germany posed in global terms. Eventually, two strong Presidents, Wilson and Roosevelt, recognised the dangers if America did not take part and seek to defeat the aggressors. The sinking of the Lusitania and Pearl Harbour were the catalysts for America’s intervention which was crucial to the allied victories. 

Today, Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine could be viewed as “a local difficulty.” There is no apparent strategic interest for intervention by the West, nor is the humanitarian crisis equating the scale of Iraq or Syria. However, where will a power-hungry Russia stop? What does it have to do before the West takes military action?

Is it imaginable that Ronald Reagan would have ignored Russia’s incursions? I have no doubt he would have threatened the Russians with all the considerable armed forces available to him. Since Reagan, the Cold War has ended and the world has moved on. America has fought harsh wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the American public has no appetite these days for body bags. Therefore the easiest route for the current administration and President Obama is to utter words of condemnation and impose sanctions. Will this halt Russia or bring it to the negotiating table? So far, the answer is strongly negative. This week’s cease fire agreement failed within 24 hours!

One solution is to make the Ukraine a temporary member of NATO, enjoying the same privileges as America, Western Europe, Scandinavia and its other members. NATO forces, albeit depleted since the 1990s, are still formidable. A real show of force might deter Mr Putin from further aggression and bring him to the negotiating table.

Will this happen? I am an admirer of President Obama but his administration’s foreign policy over recent months has left me scratching my head. He does not seem to understand the meaning of alliances and the need for a Western coalition, led by America, to stand up to the Russians.

I do not want to see another Cold War, nor a hot one for that matter but bullies need to be stopped. Mr Putin and his government are undoubtedly bullies and must be dealt with accordingly. Sanctions won’t work. So, come on, Mr Obama, spend some time thinking about history and accept that aggression is needed. Don’t get side-tracked by ISIS. If you ignore the current situation in Ukraine, you may be forced to repeat the past with awful consequences.