The 2014 Mid-Term Election: Part 1.

This summer, it has been comparatively easy to ignore domestic American politics. It’s the silly season for the media. Ferguson apart, nothing much has hit the British press about USA for some weeks, except its foreign policy and initiatives in the Middle East. However, Labor Day fast approaches and that is when the political equivalent of “gentlemen, start your engines” will reverberate through the USA. The November mid-terms are only ten weeks away. Who will be in charge of Congress next January?

Let’s first look at the House of Representatives. It seems that it is not in play. The Democrats need to win seventeen seats to re-take the House. If President Obama had higher ratings, if Obamacare was popular, if executive orders on immigration were regarded positively, maybe the US electorate would react well to the Democratic cause. However, rightly or wrongly, the President’s policies are perceived as a disconnect between his wants and those of many Democrats who are on the ballot paper. The latter, of course, pay far more attention to their constituents than the needs of the Party. After all, they are elected for only two years.

Today, it seems the Democrats have zero chance of a House win. Indeed, a good result for them would be to maintain the status quo. An acceptable result would be keeping seat losses under ten. If so, the 2016 House election, with the Party led by a new Democratic presidential hopeful, will offer a much better chance.

The Democrats enjoy a majority of ten seats in the Senate, including two independents who caucus with the Party. If the Democrats lose their majority in November, it follows the Republicans will likely control both Houses of Congress. As a consequence, they will enjoy the considerable power of chairing all congressional committees in both Houses and will have no problem rejecting legislative initiatives emanating from the White House. The Republicans will send all manner of unacceptable Bills to the President, forcing him to use his veto stamp. Should the Republicans achieve a majority of 60/40 in the Senate, the vetoes will be overridden. Therefore, much depends on the Senate races.

Three Democratic seats are as good as lost. Incumbent John Walsh (D) has dropped out of the Montana race over plagiarism allegations. The Democrats are very unpopular in West Virginia and the Republican candidate, Congresswoman Shelley Moor (R), is a heavy favorite. In South Dakota, the Republicans are way ahead in the polls. In addition, Arkansas and Louisiana will be very tough races for the Democrats. Also, the Republicans are polling well in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska.  If six of these seats are lost by the Democrats, and the Republicans hold all their seats, the game is up for the Democratic majority.

The unknown quantity remains the Republican brand. Its right wing element and the Tea Partiers, are regarded as uncaring, having a personal hatred of the chief executive, are anti-abortion, pro low taxation, opposed to gun controls and homophobic. These attitudes may push voters into the Democratic camp. It is too late in this election for the Republicans to alter their stance.

I expect the Democrats to push the message home: “If you want austerity, if you want to go back to ‘rugged individualism’ and all that entails, if you want the federal government to stop spending money on education and healthcare and old people, then vote Republican for this is surely what you’ll get.”

So far the mid-terms have not caught fire. I expect this to alter soon. I’ll blog again on this topic in a few weeks. Maybe there will be a game-changer or an October Surprise. After all, this is American politics. However, I have to say that, whatever the result, America’s problems are unlikely to be solved by the 114^th Congress.