Brexit: A Children's Horror Story

It’s hard enough writing about American politics and getting it right. British politics is equally confusing and complex. Living in London, I have access to fine political journalists who are so much more knowledgeable than me. I’d recommend Daniel Finklestein, who writes for The Times and Jonathan Freedland, writing for the Guardian. Both stand out as masters of their trade, with especially good insights on Brexit.

However, many of my American readers have posed the question which can be summarised as “what’s up with Brexit?” Let’s start with an analogy. Say the State of California wants to leave the Union. Rather than engage in a civil war, D.C. enters into negotiations. It takes three years but the President and the Governor of California finally make a joint announcement, “We have an agreement.” However, those Californians who want to leave the Union say the agreement is a capitulation and vote it down. The State must re-negotiate with a totally recalcitrant D.C. Their mess continues.

One more analogy. At soccer games this weekend, if the referee gets decisions against the home side wrong, the crowd will chant, “you don’t know what you’re doing.” This is how many people think of Mrs May and her cabinet. Whilst playing politics to try to keep the Conservative Party united over Brexit, they have lost sight of what best serves the people they represent.

In 1972, British Prime Minister Ted Heath signed the Treaty of Rome giving UK entry into the EEC (European Economic Community). The Conservative Party was split asunder between those who welcomed joining Europe and others who found it abhorrent. Since then, despite almost 50 years of comparative prosperity and no wars on one of the most bellicose continents of the world, the Conservative Party remains as divided as ever on Europe.

If you want an example of ideological politics to the exclusion of common sense, you have only to look at the stance taken by those British MPs who believe and campaign that UK should not to be beholden to Europe or, as one of them says, under their yolk. How these politicians can maintain such a position is beyond me. Maybe Europe is expensive and bureaucratic. Yes, we are subject to European law, not British law, yet when I ask Leavers to provide three pieces of European legislation that adversely affect UK, they cannot do so. Look how we have benefited from Europe, not just in trade but through the many agencies which take care of 500 million people.

The history of our withdrawal from the EU is long, complicated and full of political sleight of hand. Suffice it to say that when David Cameron called the 2016 general election, the right wing of his party, as well as Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, pressed him to agree to go ahead with the EU Remain/Leave referendum. Without getting the right wing on-side, the Conservatives could well have collapsed and would have lost the election. The Conservatives won, Cameron secured some changes to EC rules and called the Referendum. Then followed promises by Leave of golden years ahead while Remain used the fear factor. Suffice it to say, both sides lied and lied and lied. By a 52%/48% vote, Leave won. Referenda are not legally binding but the Conservatives have chosen to treat the narrow victory as gospel.

 I’ll pass over the ensuing 30 months where little was achieved in negotiations with EU. Finally, Mrs May achieved “the deal,” a mish-mash of terms covering trade with the EU, a customs deal of sorts and other proposals. The deal was, in effect, an agreement to agree. Now I don’t mind such a deal. It would require more negotiations with EU but during this time, business would operate, trade would continue and kinks would get ironed out by practical men and women.

 However, the customs border between Northern Ireland and Eire is a Gordian knot. Ulster will leave the EU but Eire will remain. The EU will not countenance a “soft border” between EU and UK, including Ulster. This problem was disclosed to the public some nine months ago. EU law and Irish law butt heads and either the EU or Ulster and Eire will have to back down to secure a deal. If the latter, the Good Friday peace agreements will need speedy alteration. It’s a deal breaker.

 For Mrs May’s deal, the politicians cobbled together a “back stop” whose fine print I don’t pretend to understand but which kicks the can down the road. Leave politicians say they won’t agree the back stop because it ties us to EU indefinitely. More ideology.

 At one stage, Mrs May was not going to allow the House of Commons a vote on the deal until it was signed but a businesswoman, Gina Miller, took the executive to court on the issue and won. Subsequently, after delays by Mrs May, the Commons voted down the deal by a huge majority. The next day Mrs May the same MPs who deserted Mrs May backed her on a motion of no confidence in the government. Conservative MPs were twisting and turning like dervishes. Politics may be the art of the possible but this was nearer to watching the making of sausages.

Last week, after another wasted day of debate in the House of Commons when no clear way forward was agreed upon except further negotiations, Mrs May announced her next move. She would return to Brussels (political home of the EU) and renegotiate her deal. She had been told in the clearest terms by EU negotiators, both before and after the Commons debate, her deal was not open to re-negotiation. Mrs May, or should I call her Dona Quixote, failed to hear or just blanked out the noise from the EU. But her deafness is equally apparent to the British people who despair about their uncertain futures. Businesses are removing themselves from UK, medicines are being stockpiled and future food supplies are in question.

British politicians are so scared and desperate to get a deal, they will probably approve Mrs May’s deal if back-stop fudge can be resolved. They should be scared. Their ideology, the selfish desire to score points and achieve meaningless victories, their self-aggrandisement and deafness to the public demands to find solutions, coupled with their inexperience of the real world, has been evident for a long time and could condemn us to crash out of the EU with no deal. Scandalous. What is worse is that none of these politicians, whether in or out of government, are accountable. They might lose their seats in the next general election but they won’t be hauled before a judge for criminal negligence.

You may well ask what I would do. I would seek agreement with EU to extend Article 50 (the mechanism to take UK out of the EU on 29^th March, 2019) for as much as a year and hold a second referendum as soon as possible to discover whether the UK public still want to leave or remain. If their decision is again to leave, we already have a blueprint for a deal except the Irish back stop. Something has to give. There is no negotiable solution acceptable to all.

Most of us on this Sceptered Isle are heartily sick of Brexit and the leaders who handle it, not to mention the Opposition who cannot make up their minds about where to position themselves. If no agreement is reached quickly, businesses will continue to vote with their feet and move to Europe with concomitant loss of jobs, supply of goods will be delayed and all sorts of security protection we enjoy as members of the EU will be lost, making us all the more vulnerable to those who would do this country harm.

Why is it that Mrs May, her cabinet and members of Parliament do not heed the risk? They say we will leave on 29^th March, despite the fact that reams of legislation needed will not be passed by Parliament in time. They say, especially Mrs May, a new deal will be agreed. How? Only by abandoning Ulster. If our membership of EU ends in calamity, all those politicians will also say, in chorus, “It wasn’t my fault.”