The 2020 Democratic Line up for the White House.
In the first Republican
primary for the 2016 Presidential nomination, there were nineteen people in the
race, so many that they had to be divided into two sets. Those in the second
tier moaned and complained. Television’s decision had wrecked their runs. The
same could happen with the Democrats next year.
New Year, 2019, will
herald the unofficial starting gun for the 2020 race for the White House. No
point discussing who will run for the Republicans. It will be the incumbent,
unless he can’t be bothered, or is impeached or passes away. But who will
emerge for the Democrats? The Presidential primaries will not start for more
than a year from now but more than forty Democrats have expressed an interest
in running. I’d be curious to know how many of them are already making their pilgrimages
to Iowa and New Hampshire.
A new candidate emerged last week. Is he the man Democrats have been
waiting for? Senator Robert P. Casey Jr. of
Pennsylvania says he has “an obligation to consider” running for President. In
so saying, he tacked on a Trumpian-style tease: “We’ll see what happens.” If
the Democrats’ idea of the total package is a man The Washington Post describes as “mild, earnest and quite possibly
the most boring person in politics,” then so be it. He would be a striking
alternative to another contender, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, a showboat
who often declares, with a straight face, “I am Spartacus.”
Are there Democratic contenders of political
substance? Former Vice President Biden will be 77 next year, almost a youth in
comparison to future Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Biden is popular and regarded as a
safe pair of hands. Bernie Sanders is another sprightly 77 year old. I can’t
believe he’ll not join in the fun. However, if youth is needed, a good choice might
be Congressman Eric Swalwell of California, although his main qualification
seems to be his age, 38. If experience is needed, what about Governor John
Hickenlooper of Colorado? He once ran a brewery. Sadly, Trump would use his
name to make everybody giggle.
If genuineness is the essential quality, Beto
O’Rourke of Texas may be the man, though he narrowly failed in his recent run
for the US Senate candidate. He has since declared he will not run but I’m sure
he could be persuaded, which would leave him vulnerable to his “genuine” claim.
The Latino population is growing,
making former Housing and Urban Development secretary Julián Castro an interesting
choice. But would Latinos turn out in big numbers to vote? They didn’t in 2016.
Would Castro be happy being cast as the brown candidate? Maybe he could take a
bottom-of-the ticket spot?
Would Democrats consider a Trump-style outsider? Billionaires Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, Mark
Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, or even Tom Steyer, a hedge fund mogul
and philanthropist, all might be persuaded to follow the lead forged by Trump.
But if a rich man is the answer to Democratic prayers, they could look no
further than Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City. At least he has
had political experience.
Assuming Trump will be the opponent, not a given, there
is a distinct need for a candidate of substance, someone with a pithy and
popular message and platform. I suggest the following: Senator Amy Klobuchar of
Minnesota, although she carries a perceived lack of toughness which Trump would
exploit.
Senator Kamala Harris of California is undoubtedly combative. I tipped
her for the Democrat nomination a year ago. She would be a formidable candidate.
But she’s not a clubbable person and might face difficulties moving in the
smoke-filled rooms of Democratic politics. The formidable Senator Elizabeth
Warren of Massachusetts might make a run, although her embarrassing DNA-test experience
makes her a Trump “Pocahontas” target. My view is he damaged her below the
water line.
Who else might emerge from this political peloton?
Former attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr., and former governors Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Terry
McAuliffe of Virginia fit as Clinton and Obama remoulds. Family names might
make a comeback with Governor Mario Cuomo of New York and Congressman Joe
Kennedy of Massachusetts.
It is possible that the Clintons and Bushes may have
killed off Democratic dynastic politics. But if they haven’t, what about Michelle
Obama? She has held no political office, has no governing experience and would
hardly be classed as a wealthy candidate but she is bound to go in the mix, if
only by the media. She has said loud and clear she doesn’t want to run. After
all, she has already spent eight years in Washington’s best appointed prison.
So, there you have it, my thoughts about the
Democratic Presidential field for 2020. It will be fun to go back after the
Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to see the accuracy of my forecast.
Strong hint: bet responsibly by holding onto your money.
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