The 2018 Midterms Part II

The 2018 American election results are in the books. Or are they? At the time of writing, recounts are happening in Florida and Georgia which could give the results a different hue. But let’s summarise the big picture. The Democrats took the House back and several Governors’ mansions too. Republicans held the Senate.

Here is my analysis of some winners and losers. First, the winners. The Democrats took over the House of Representatives, reversing a twenty eight seat Republican majority. That’s a very big win. As a result, Nancy Pelosi may regain the role of Speaker, although currently it’s a toss-up whether she has enough votes. If she takes the chair, this would also a big win for her. It’s rare for a former speaker to regain her place after so long. She lost the House gavel eight years ago. What role will she adopt as Speaker? I’d like to say she will be a conciliator, seeking common ground with Republican legislators, but past history indicates it’s more likely that she will welcome a return of gridlock as she and her Party settle scores with her enemies. Perhaps this is why she doesn’t enjoy the confidence of a majority of her colleagues.

The Republicans may have an increased majority in the Senate and the President is crowing this as a win. I don’t see it that way. The Senate map was so much in favour of the Republicans because only eight Republican seats out of thirty four were at stake. Maintaining control was expected. 2020 will be very different as many more Republican seats will be up for grabs.

However, I cannot deny Senate Republicans have a win. They will keep confirming President Trump’s right wing, conservative judges and other appointees. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, must go into the winners’ column. He got a bonus. Democrat Amy McGrath’s loss in Kentucky’s 6th District means it’s doubtful she will be the Democratic opponent for McConnell’s seat in 2020. Mitch would have had a hard ride.

Other wins include Amendment 4 on the Florida ballot. Convicted felons who have discharged all debts to society now have the right to vote. Some may credit this as a civil rights win. The Washington Post states almost 10% of voting-age Floridians are convicted felons. The outcome of Florida elections will be different from now on, probably good news for the Democrats. Ballot initiatives were passed in three deep-red states, Nebraska, Idaho and Utah, to expand Medicaid eligibility under Obamacare. Kansas elected a Democratic governor, replacing a Republican who opposed an expansion. 37 states now want an expanded Medicaid. These are big wins in the Democratic columns.

My final winner is Mitt Romney who won the Senate seat in Utah. Will he seek the Republican Presidential nomination for 2020? Your guess is as good as mine.

Here are my losers: In third place, some big name Republican politicians were voted out of office, including Peter Roskam (Chicago), Erik Paulsen (Minneapolis), John Culberson (Houston) and, unexpectedly, Steve Russell (Oklahoma City). But some fancied Democrats lost. Karen Eastman in Nebraska and Dana Balter in New York fell by the wayside, the latter in a district carried by Hillary Clinton when she ran for Senate and President.

In second place: Donald Trump made the mid-terms a judgment on his Presidency. However he and his spokespersons want to spin it, he lost the House of Representatives by a big margin. At time of writing, we don’t know the final outcome of the Senate vote but the Republican majority will remain narrow. From where I sit, El Presidente got a drubbing. Trump’s fear-based, anti-caravan strategy was ugly and probably backfired. In the end, Trump was just doing what he knew, rather than what might have saved one-half of Congress from going Democrat.

In first place, for me, is the BBC, Sky News and other British television news channels. Shortly before the results were given, news channels here reported the possible Democratic win in the House and the likely outcome. Those I watched forecasted an impeachment initiative by the House. None of the broadcasters set out likely details of charges. None commented that after so long, the Mueller investigation has yet to accuse the President of anything at all. Nor did any question the end game. Whilst the House impeaches (accuses), it is the Senate which convicts or acquits. Where will 67 Senate votes be found to convict Trump?

None put forward a logical reason why the House would process a losing case. I can see a possible answer, namely stymying the administration and putting Senate Republicans off-side. But the price would be the voters’ anger. Most would not support this kind of politics. But the essential point is the broadcasting was of the poorest quality and so misleading for Brits who don’t know the impeachment rules.