Shutdown

The dramatic headlines read, “The American Government is closed.” Unsurprisingly, the headlines were not exactly right. It is true that Congress has failed to agree a budget with the President and, furthermore, could not agree the terms of a four week CR (Continuing Resolution) to keep the federal government working but less than 10% of federal employees are furloughed thus far. The government is working and last night, the Senate agreed to “kick the can down the road” with a CR until 8^th February. The House votes today and the US government will be back at work the next day.

This is no longer an unusual occurrence. Most readers will recall Presidents Clinton and Obama had to run watered down governments. So, why did post-war Presidential giants like Truman, Eisenhower, LBJ and Nixon not face the same problem? The trouble starts with the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act, 1974. The role of Congress in the federal budget process changed. Standing Budget Committees for both Houses were created and the Congressional Budget Office was created. After Nixon, Congress regained control of the budget process. The evidence is clear. Since 1974, there have been nineteen shutdowns, including Trump’s. The first was in 1976 when President Ford vetoed a funding bill for the Labour, Health & Education Department.

President Carter faced five shutdowns in his four years, all bar one over abortions issues. This appears to be the first occasion when a shutdown happened over a non-related budget issue, setting a precedent for future disputes. It was not until the 1980s that legal precedent was set so that funding gaps necessitated a full or partial shutdown. In 1981, President Reagan furloughed 241,000 federal workers when a cut proposed by him in domestic spending was rejected. Reagan faced seven more shutdowns over mainly spending issues but there were also disputes about future legislation. The administration of President George W. Bush was also forced into a shutdown when Congress rejected a plan to reduce government deficit.

Arguably, the best know shutdowns were under President Clinton. The first, in 1995, lasted six days when overreaching Congressional Republicans sought a rise in Medicare premiums, rollbacks of environmental regulations and a balanced budget requirement. The dispute was settled first with a CR and then a final agreement when Clinton agreed to a balanced budget within seven years. The second, in late 1995 lasted almost a month. The argument was technical, relating to which calculations would be accepted to decide the balanced budget issue. It sounds nerdy but in fact was highly political.

The 18^th shutdown happened in 2013 when the Republicans, led by Speaker Boehner, tried to pressure President Obama to agree lower levels of discretionary spending and delay implementation of any funding bill by a year. The Republicans caved after 17 days.

So, why has the government shut down now? Almost as soon as President Trump took office, he declared war on illegal immigrants but the move was expected as Trump’s policies against illegal immigrants were well known. In one of his first White House moves, Trump sought to bar immigration from seven countries, regardless of the rights of those seeking entry. He saw nothing wrong in using the expression, “extreme vetting.”

In addition, the President wanted to end the legal status granted to many thousands of immigrants protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, DACA, introduced by the Obama administration. Under DACA, certain undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children before 2007 (the Dreamers) could apply for renewable, two-year permits that protected them from deportation and allowed them to work legally. Applicants must have been less than 16 years old when they arrived and younger than 31 when DACA began in 2012. They must have had no significant criminal record and be enrolled in high school or have a diploma or the equivalent. The program did not provide a path to permanent residency or citizenship.

The Congressional Democrats have refused to agree the budget unless and until an acceptable compromise for the Dreamers is reached. They also are unwilling to move forward if funding for the Mexican Wall is included, although this seems to be a less important issue. It is not for me to judge whether a shutdown makes a deal for the Dreamers more or less likely. The Democrats’ argument, essentially, is that it’s time to take a stand for the Dreamers and a show of strength is the only way to force a recalcitrant White House and Congressional Republicans to get serious on the issue.

Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the White House, so how have they got stuck? A budget bill requires the approval of both Houses. In the Senate, the debate is subject to a filibuster, so the Democrats could “talk it out.” To end a filibuster requires a cloture motion, when a 60% majority is needed. The Republicans do not have 60 votes in the Senate. I hope this explanation is clear. If not, please consult your local Congressman. Interestingly, Trump recently asked Senate Majority Leader McConnell to change Senate rules to end filibuster rights. McConnell refused.

Where is the President now in the debate? A recorded message was set up on the White House comment phone line, which accepts calls from members of the public: "Unfortunately, we cannot answer your call today because Congressional Democrats are holding government funding - including funding for our troops and other national security priorities - hostage to an unrelated immigration debate. Due to this obstruction, the government is shut down."

I am sure Trump is fuming because, yet again, he is thwarted by Congressional Democrats but either he does not understand how government money works or he is lying. The federal government has numerous pockets of money, thus essential government employees can be funded. The payment of troops is not presently in issue, nor is the funding of armed forces as a whole.

Interestingly, I came across a Trump quote from 2013 about President Obama: "The problems start from the top and have to get solved from the top. The president is the leader, and he's got to get everybody in a room and he's got to lead." Will Trump lead now and figure out a compromise? The vaunted dealer and his art thereof seems to be missing, although he is claiming credit for the latest CR. Mind you, so are the Democrats and the Republicans!

Now there is a breathing space, will the Democrats receive support when their argument is based primarily on rights of illegal immigrants? Dyed in the wool Trump supporters will point to this as an example of Democratic Party obstructiveness and a desire to confound the nation. Furthermore, Republicans will argue that the move against illegals was a Trump policy and he was voted in as a result. Meanwhile, the Democrats will criticise the Republicans as heartless because they have declared war on innocent children.

Details of yesterday’s CR deal are sparse and much will depend on the small print. From what I have gathered, the Democratic leadership agreed to back the budget bill after accepting promises from the Republican leadership for a debate on the future of young illegal immigrants. Democrats want protections from deportation for the estimated 700,000 plus young immigrants brought to the US as children. What happens if the debate does not produce results acceptable to the Democrats? What if CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program is not restored and funded? And what if other budget issues are not resolved? By then, the political parties will have weighed public opinion but will either cave in? If not, there will be another shutdown.

What a way to run a government! On Friday evening, Senator John Kennedy (R-La) commented: “Our country was founded by geniuses but it is being run by idiots.” I fear that were the Founding Fathers to visit D.C at this moment, they would not know whether to hold their ears, their eyes or their noses.