Plan B, President Trump?

Plan B, President Trump?

So, we have a beleaguered, multi-millionaire President. He faces a missile threat from a rogue nation. At home, he has found that although his Party has a majority in Congress, he is unable to get any meaningful legislation through. His flagship Bill cannot get any mileage. In private, he rants about the difficulties of presidency. He ignores charges of nepotism as relatives are placed in positions of power and he spends time in a virtual palace. His sole advantage seems to be that he has a beautiful wife. I am writing, of course, about John F. Kennedy.

Substitute North Korea for Cuba, new healthcare laws for black civil rights, random mass shootings for protests on the streets of Birmingham, Alabama, choose Mar-a-Lago instead of Camelot and the Kushners for Bobby Kennedy. I think this proves my point. There is another parallel. Consider Trump as the Wizard of Oz. Pull the curtains aside on The Great and Terrible Donald and what do you find? Someone who thought he could run America as a personal fiefdom with all bending to his will, only to find that in the real world of D.C., things don’t work that way. Well, the Dorothy’s of Congress have shown they are not so small and weak. Trump has brought bullying instead of leading as the new presidential skill.

JFK bought into the domino theory to combat communism. Trump has created his own set of dominoes. He needs the removal of Obamacare to help pay for tax cuts, the Mexican Wall and the infrastructure program. No funds are available for the moment. Who does Trump blame? His tweets last weekend blamed “8 Democrats who won’t vote with us and defeat this stupid 60 votes rule.” In other words, he sees Senate process as the villain, not the proposed legislation which would have deprived health insurance for millions of Americans. He sees no virtue in the Senate filibuster. This means he gives no credit for minority opinion. It seems our Donald’s credo is “my way or the highway.” In comparison, FDR knew his New Deal legislation was unconstitutional because it transgressed separation of powers but he did listen to his Brains Trust and minority views.

Back to present day. Obamacare has flaws, three of which are major. First, a 2012 Supreme Court ruling has allowed the states to opt out of Medicaid expansion. This forced poor and working class people who did not qualify for Medicaid either to pay for private insurance which they could barely afford or pay a fine. Second, health insurers have withdrawn from Obamacare, mainly because too few Americans are signing up. As a result, the smaller market has resulted in insurance costs rising, with the knock-on effect of even less participation. Subsidies available to low and middle-income Americans for buying healthcare policies are inadequate and fines for not participating are not high enough to persuade those needing insurance to buy it. Third, health premiums are expected to rise by 25% this year, as was predicted in 2012, and subsidies will increase too but those who would be covered by Medicaid expansion are not entitled to these subsidies.

American healthcare costs account for approximately 18% of federal government spend. It is a big deal. Therefore it is all the more regrettable that 535 D.C. legislators cannot put their heads together to find solutions to the legislation flaws. None of those I have listed are cemented by ideology. They are practical, i.e. how best to spend money. There is no argument about Obamacare needing to work better. It is political ideology that gets in the way. For example, the Republicans do not want to fund Planned Parenthood out of federal funds. Why on earth is this a major stumbling block? Democrats and Republicans alike are pro-choice and pro-life. The ideological stance of those wanting change is repulsive for liberals but essential for conservatives. A way out can be found by defying the extremes of both parties.

Trump has not helped solve the differences, despite his self-vaunting as a deal maker. He campaigned on “repeal and replace” of Obamacare. It was one of the important pillars of his campaign but seven months into his presidency, the executive branch has produced no viable alternative. Is Trump one of those leaders who believes if you say it loud enough for long enough, it will become true? Where is the Plan B, the beautiful new law you often speak about, Mr President? I live in the UK where most of the time government business is limited to collecting and disbursing money to best effect. The Conservatives’ austerity policies have run their course but at least we don’t deny medical help to our citizens on grounds they don’t have insurance and can’t afford to pay.

There will now be a breathing space whilst Congress is in recess, giving time for the legislators to do what the Founding Fathers intended. Meetings of minds can be difficult but this is why the legislators are sent to Washington, namely to overcome problems and find solutions that are best for the most.

The President is beset with many problems, mainly of his own making. His first problem is “America First.” This is one of those statements that is bound to result in people getting hot under the collar, allies and foes alike. I know of no President whose policy was anything other than America first. It might be a good slogan for an election but any experienced statesman will tell you it is a hindrance in talks with other nations. Trump’s bravado withdrawal from the Paris Accords might have played well with Johnny-blue collar-never-been-west-of-the-Dakotas-I-hate-everyone-not-like-me but the damage Trump’s withdrawal will cause has been challenged by governors of several states, who say they will continue to abide by the Accords. The administration’s energy policies hark back to the dark ages. Where is the investment in renewable energies? Coal is not the answer. Clean coal is FAKE.

Congress opens for business again on 5^th September. The Budget Continuing Resolution keeps the government open for business until 30^th September. Will the parties in Congress agree a budget? It depends on Mr Trump. He will continue to demand funds for his precious wall, which I suspect will be laughed off. Tax cuts will be contentious because they are bound to favour the rich more than the middle class and working America. But these were campaign promises which Trump will not give up without a fight. Infrastructure improvements should find favour because renewal of roads, repair of bridges, construction of new public schools and other amenities not only provide jobs but have long term benefits.

Trump has so many other problems. The West Wing is in disarray, to put it mildly. He has recently replaced his Chief of Staff and Communications Director, twice, he has publicly castigated his Attorney General, and he is briefing against Robert Mueller, the special counsel in the Russian election influence scandal. In addition his son-in-law, Jared Kushner has put his son, Donald, in the frame for the Russian influence business. The new Chief of Staff might steady the ship but the West Wing sounds like a nest of vipers. All that is missing is evidence that Trump has covered up wrongdoing by his son and we are off to the Watergate races.

I foresee another stumbling block. Last weekend, the President threatened members of Congress about their heavily subsidised healthcare insurance. He tweeted: “if a new HealthCare Bill is not approved quickly, BAILOUTS for Insurance Companies and BAILOUTS for Members of Congress will end very soon!” Either Trump does not know or has forgotten what Congress did to FDR in 1937. After winning the Presidency for the second time with massive majorities in both Houses of Congress, FDR proposed the Court Packing Plan, to increase the size of the Supreme Court from 9 to 15 judges. The rationale was to help the existing judges with a heavy case workload. The truth was FDR wanted to punish the Supremes for wrecking his New Deal legislation. The proposal went to Congress for approval. After the vote, Vice-President John Garner went to see the President. “So?” FDR asked. “Do you want it with the bark on or off?” was the reply. Congress had delivered a huge black eye to the executive branch. The moral, “don’t interfere with other branches of Congress.” If Trump exercises his threat, look out for Congressional reprisals ten times over.

Ideology has been the root cause of American governmental problems for decades. Trump cannot control it. But he is a great example of why a politically inexperienced, braggart businessman should not be the chief executive and commander-in-chief. The current crop of Republicans remind me of the 1930s and President Hoover’s exhortation to the poor, defeated, unemployed Americans to practice “rugged individualism” when government help was desperately needed. On the other hand, the left of the Democratic Party vocalises the importance of benefits, entitlements and ‘soak the rich’ while forgetting that the rich pay for a huge share of welfare and other government programs. Quite how this cycle can be broken is hard to see.

Wouldn’t it be great if large numbers of moderates stood for election in the 2018 mid-term, not only for the federal government but also the states? Sadly there is no evidence that this will happen. Interest groups like the NRA will find sufficient funds to put up their own small-minded candidates to ensure no watering down of gun laws. The left are no different.

What is needed is a robust Supreme Court to rule that money is not “speech”, that ‘soft money’ is unlawful and that the interpretation of the First Amendment by previous Courts is wrong. After this, the administration should embark on the process of re-writing the First Amendment so that freedoms have a sufficient element of equality to prevent individuals and corporation skewing elections. While reforms are being made, tackle the Second Amendment to bring sense to the right to bear arms. I suspect if I went to America to voice these views, I would be regarded as an enemy of the people!