US Congress: Here We Go Again.

In 1946, the Democratic Party was destroyed in the mid-term Congressional election. For the first time in fourteen years, the Republican Party controlled both Houses. What did they do with this power? For one thing, they steered the 2^nd Amendment through, limiting Presidential terms to eight years. But surprise, surprise, they sought to confound the Democratic executive branch in all initiatives to bring the American economy safely from wartime to peacetime conditions.

Over the ensuing two years, President Harry Truman proposed numerous policies to aid and assist the economy, all of which were rejected by Congress. However, when it came to the 1948 Presidential campaign, Republican candidate Thomas Dewey and his colleagues proposed the very same economic policies that Truman had advocated. Truman, a savvy politician running badly behind in the polls, saw an opportunity. He recalled Congress in July, 1948, challenging Congressmen and Senators in the Republican Party to legislate on the policies that Dewey supported. Typically, Congress sat on its hands. This failure to act, added to Truman’s barnstorming, whistle-stop campaign, saw him back in the White House that November.

What goes around comes around. The Republicans currently control both Houses of Congress and a Democrat occupies the White House. Congress has blocked all executive initiatives over the past two years. There are many issues before the current set of Republicans in Congress on which they have refused to act. Funding a programme to battle the Zika virus and filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court are but two matters that need resolution. There is also the important, essential matter of the funding bill, without which the US government will be unable to pay its bills and will have to shut down.

I believe President Obama missed a trick by not recalling Congress this summer to try to resolve such matters. In terms of government, it was worth a shot. Politically, it would have helped Mrs Clinton in her campaign. But crying and spilled milk are a combination that is not a pretty sight. Congress returns next week after a seven-week summer break. I hope the President goes on a media offensive with a single message to legislators: Keep the American government open for business and for the people.

A new spending deal has to be agreed with the Executive and approved by Congress before the end of the fiscal year on September 30th. Should no agreement be reached, will Congress agree instead to a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government in business? If so, how long will a CR last? Conservative Republicans are pressing for a six-month CR, moving the real budget fight into 2017, when there will be a new President in office and a new Congress in place. The argument is: “Coming back after the election to complete the annual budget work during the lame-duck session would result in a legislative package hiking spending and pandering to special interests.” The concern about a spending hike is fair enough but pandering to special interests? That is true Republican gall!

Congressional Democrats and a few moderate Republicans prefer to finish the annual budget work either now or immediately after the election. Clearly, there is going to be another budget fight which has little effect on the pugilists themselves, comfortable in their jobs and perks, but hurts the ordinary people who rely on government for all manner of things, such as welfare payments.

Harry Reid, the retiring Senate Minority leader, has refused to agree a long term CR. There is an implicit threat of a filibuster against any deal Democrats don’t support. The stalemate over spending is a headache for Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, and House Speaker Paul Ryan, neither of whom want any whiff of a shutdown threat weeks before the election. It is a big vote loser for the Republicans.

Senate Republicans hold a slim 54-46 majority. The Party may well lose control come November because the GOP is so unpopular, thanks in part to the efforts of Donald Trump. House Republicans have a more comfortable advantage of 247-186, but Democrats could make significant gains in the election.

Republicans are likely to hold closed-door meetings to assess whether their members would negotiate with Democrats on the budget or a CR, as well as funding Zika. Senate Republicans will encounter fierce pressure to reach a solution soon so vulnerable members can head back to their states and districts to campaign. Twenty-four Republican senators are up for re-election come November and many are behind in the polls.

Whatever happens over the next few days, there will be a lot of finger-pointing, harsh partisanship and the exchange of unpleasant words. Is this the right way to run a government? Is this really what the Framers of the Constitution anticipated? I leave the answer to you.