Monday, July 25, 2016

The November Presidential Election: The Bottom of the Ticket


The relative unimportance of the vice presidency was probably best expressed by John Nance Garner, Franklin Roosevelt’s choice in the 1932 and 1936 elections. Garner described the job as “not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Some VPs have experienced the viciousness of the comedy circuit and the media. Dan Quayle was described as the man who was a heartbeat away from a heartbeat. Spiro Agnew was vilified for his extreme views even before he was caught up in a financial scandal, accepting bribes brought to him in brown paper bags in his EOB office.

The choice of a Vice President is usually a non-event. It often gets no more than one news cycle. This year, the media is paying greater attention. Perhaps this arises because of the unpopularity of both candidates at the top of the ticket. Maybe there is genuine interest in how the ticket will be balanced, for example John Kennedy from the industrial North East chose Southerner Lyndon Johnson. This year, the choices have shown a deep divide between the political parties. Whilst Mike Pence of Indiana and Tim Kaine of Virginia might seem to be cut from the same establishment cloth, this is not the case.

Pence, the Governor of Indiana, had twelve years’ experience in the House of Representatives. He consistently advocated right wing causes.  He had no interest in reaching across the aisle. He is Tea Party, having chaired the movement. As Governor, he signed into law a religious freedom bill which protected businesses discriminating against LGTG employees. He wants to end abortion rights enshrined in Roe v Wade. He is backed by the notorious Koch brothers’ conservative network. Trump chose Pence because he, Trump, needs to appease the base of the Republican Party. Pence speaks their deep right-wing language.

In contrast, Kaine has a crossover appeal. In his state, he is supported by Democrats and Republicans alike. Since Nixon’s days, Virginia has mostly been a solid Republican state. Kaine, as Virginia’s governor and now as U S Senator, has demonstrated how Democrats can win in the southern states. Kaine is a Catholic, he spent time as a missionary and he is fluent in Spanish, a plus for the Latino community. Whilst he is personally opposed to abortion, he supports a woman’s right to choose. As Governor, he allowed eleven executions to proceed, yet he enjoys the worst rating from the National Rifle Association.

If, like Trump, Mrs Clinton felt the need to appease her party base, she would have chosen Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts US Senator who most echoed Bernie Sanders, or Tom Perez, the Labour Secretary who would have been the first Latino on a major presidential ticket. Instead, the choice of Kaine is indicative that Mrs Clinton intends to fight in Republican states where she is already polling well. Another benefit with Kaine is his ability to expose a glaring weakness on the opposing ticket, namely knowledge of national security and international affairs. Kaine served on Senate committees overseeing armed services and foreign relations.

There are any number of criteria which determines a VP choice. How will the President and VP work together? Kaine is a former Senate colleague of Mrs Clinton with a similar temperament. He will surely fit comfortably into her White House team. In contrast, Trump chose Pence despite hardly knowing him, to represent what he isn’t in terms of temperament and worldview. You could say that one choice is carefully considered for the future, the other glibly expedient.

I believe the most important question a presidential nominee must ask in making the choice of VP is “what if I die?” Mrs Clinton seems to have followed this route. Mr Trump probably believes he is immortal!

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