Message from the GOP: Christmas Is Over

I feel for my American family and friends if they follow US politics. The race for the White House slowed to a jog over Christmas but it is back with growing venom on the front pages of the newspapers. The shadow sparring between the candidates will soon change, as the February Iowa caucus and New England primary approach and as people drop out. For one GOP candidate, it is already the end. George Pataki of New York gave up at New Year.

Winston Churchill once famously remarked, after the victorious Battle of Al-Alamein, “This is not the end, nor is it the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning.” After some eighteen months of politicking and political triviality, the Invisible Primary season is over. Next month, people go to the polls in reality.

To gauge the potential success of candidates, it is worthwhile looking at money. Campaigns are obliged to report fourth quarter receipts by the end of January. Ted Cruz’s campaign has already announced it raised more than $19 million over the past three months. Bearing in mind the large number of Republican candidates left standing, this number sets quite a comparison benchmark. Ben Carson’s campaign responded that its receipts totalled $23 million during the same period but, according to The Washington Post, the cost of Carson’s fundraising was out of control last quarter. Current cash in hand was not disclosed. Impliedly, Carson has problems.

Last week, Jeb Bush cancelled $3 million of television advertising time originally reserved for this month. Perhaps this is a sign of poor fundraising. Evidently, the former Florida governor is redeploying most staffers from his Miami HQ to the early primary states. If he fails in the early primaries, he may well drop out of the race.

In comparison, The Donald has made a virtue out of his personal wealth, proclaiming that he doesn’t need financial help from anybody. He proudly explained how he had refused to meet with a New York Jewish lobby. “They just want to give me money so I do things for them.” Such a statement is part of the rough and tumble of American politics but is it necessary for Trump to turn fund-raising into another racist issue?

Trump is one of the two non-professional contenders from outside the political sphere who are hoping for the Republican nomination. He and Ben Carson have stayed in the race for months longer than any professional pundit expected. Is there a protest going on among mainstream Republican supporters against their professional political leaders? When the choice has to be made by those supporters as to who they want as the next Commander-in-Chief, I expect Trump and Carson will be found wanting.

Nevertheless, the Republican nominating contest has entered a new and, I detect, more desperate phase. The Christmas spirit is clearly over. Four front-running establishment GOP candidates have turned on one other. Attacks flared up into the open last weekend. Chris Christie of New Jersey ripped into Marco Rubio for missing more US Senate votes than any other senator. “Dude, show up to work,” he said, “just show up to work and vote no. And if you don’t want to, then quit.” Rubio fired back: “You know, Chris has been missing in New Jersey for half the time.”

The exchange prompted a free-for-all. Jeb Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, launched a pricy $1.4 million ad buy in Iowa to highlight Rubio’s absenteeism from the Senate. Bush’s tactics must include stopping another Floridian from getting momentum. “Politics first, that’s the Rubio way,” the ad narrator says in a muddled message. Right to Rise also unveiled a commercial favourably contrasting Bush with two other governors in the establishment lane, Christie and Ohio’s John Kasich. The super PAC supporting Kasich, New Day in America, responded that, “The country doesn’t have an appetite for another Bush … As for Governor Christie, his mishandling of his state budget and the ‘Bridgegate’ scandal have earned him a 60 percent unfavourable rating from those who know him best, the people of New Jersey.”

I cannot predict the outcome of the GOP race, save to say I expect by the time the votes are counted after Super Tuesday, the field may well have narrowed down to three candidates. Who might they be?

Ted Cruz, the senator from Texas, has been underrated but he currently holds first place in Iowa and, barring some sort of unforeseen collapse, will win the first-in-the-nation caucus. I expect he will run well in South Carolina. Thanks to Trump, Cruz is now seen in some GOP circles as a conservative, non-disastrous alternative to the real estate mogul. And, unlike other conservative insurgents of the past, Cruz has the money to last the race.

Marco Rubio has emerged as the GOP establishment favourite, a designation made apparent by major-dollar donors who sided with him over the past few months. The problem for Rubio is that he doesn’t have an obvious win in the first few states to vote. South Carolina may be Rubio’s opportunity because much of the senior command of his campaign is made up of Palmetto State (South Carolina) operatives but it is not a given. The Nevada caucus, where Rubio is now the favourite, does not take place until February 23^rd. Can Rubio’s run wait until then to get a win?

Donald Trump has to be a contender. Take a scenario where Trump finishes second behind Cruz in Iowa and loses New Hampshire. Where would that leave him? Polling puts him ahead by double digits in South Carolina, but that state’s voters undoubtedly will be affected by what Iowa and New Hampshire do and Rubio is a strong opponent. What would such losses mean for Trump’s psyche? Does he get angry and redouble his efforts or will he throw up his hands and walk away?

It is possible that other GOP hopefuls will stay in until Nevada. If so, one will probably be Chris Christie who has fought his way back to credibility largely thanks to his intense focus on New Hampshire. His greatest asset is himself. He is a talented retail campaigner, knowing the value of talking directly with voters, door to door. This tactic plays well in Iowa and New Hampshire. What remains to be seen is whether Christie can weather attacks on his administration’s politically motivated George Washington Bridge lane closures. Jeb Bush, the front-runner a year ago, is probably now an also-ran. His biggest problem seems to be he is just not an energetic or good candidate. Voters don’t seem to want him.

In the meantime, I expect Hillary Clinton will have a fairly easy run for the Democrats and will take on the role of Madame Lafarge, sitting by the guillotine as the Republican opponents execute themselves.