2016 presidential election is anyone's guess

American politics provides a rich vein of language during election time, often with sports references. Horse racing and boxing are the most popular. Expressions like “Who’s ahead?” “Who’s fallen in the race?” and “Did he deliver a knock-out blow?” proliferate.

However, one of my favorite pieces of political jargon is “the October Surprise,” an event unrelated to sport. It is deliberately created or timed or occurring on its own to influence the outcome of an election, especially the U.S. presidency. Events that take place in October have real potential to influence the decisions of undecided voters because voting day is so close.

The term came into use after the 1972 presidential election between Richard Nixon and George McGovern. The United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the divisive Vietnam War. On October 26, 1972, twelve days before the election, Nixon’s National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, announced at a White House press conference, "We believe that peace is at hand." Nixon had promised to end the unpopular war during his presidential election campaign four years earlier. With Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration, Nixon's already high standing with the electorate increased.

Since the 1972 election, the term "October Surprise" has often been used preemptively during campaign season by partisans of one side to discredit late-campaign news from the other side. In the 1980 election, Reagan was relieved to avoid the October Surprise when American hostages taken in the Teheran Embassy siege were not released until after he was sworn in. Had Carter secured their release days before the election, such a “Surprise” might have altered the outcome.

I am wondering whether a “Surprise” might happen during the 2016 presidential campaign. At the moment, Mrs. Clinton looks assured of the nomination from the Democratic Party. Her closest rival, Bernie Sanders, may be polling well in the liberal north east but nowhere else. Although Hillary may get into hot water by giving the impression that she is entitled to the nomination, at the moment she has no serious Democratic Party rival. Whether she can turn the nomination into a win next November is a different matter.

In comparison, the Republicans still have an array of around 18 contenders for the presidency. None of them has separated himself or herself yet from the pack. Despite massive media attention, Donald Trump has no significant lead. Since many of the 18 have been campaigning for up to a year and not one of them has received the acclaim of the majority of Republican voters, the primary season offers prospects of Republican blood sport. I suspect that after the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, several hopefuls will leave the arena fatally wounded. Campaigning in the primaries is very expensive and money is like a magnet, attracted to winners, not losers.

Let us assume that, after Super Tuesday, there are still four or five Republican contenders in the race. Might this not be of serious interest to a well-known outsider in the Party, perhaps a Mitt Romney type, who might be tempted to offer himself or herself to Republican voters as a better candidate than political novices like Trump and Carson and political extremists like Rubio? Could there possibly be a March Surprise in the forthcoming election?

If the Democrats win in 2016, it gives them another four years in charge of the executive branch with a good chance of a further four years from 2020. White House incumbents usually have an in-built advantage in presidential races. Take into consideration that Americans are fed up with members of Congress and blame the Republicans more than the Democrats for legislative grid-lock and government shut-down, Republican leaders must be worried about serious inroads in next year’s elections from both their political opponents and the extreme right wing of their own Party.

If you add the possibility of military success in Syria/Iran with the routing of ISIL, an accord with Russia that helps reduce military tensions, deals with China and Europe which improve the American economy, etc, the Obama administration could leave office with the USA in good order and condition and significantly more popular than now. Voters might feel their lives would be in better and safer hands by voting the Democratic ticket in both the White House and Congressional elections.

Who knows? Maybe next November we might see the biggest Surprise of all.