The Race for the White House 2016

The Invisible Primary.

There is a period in the Presidential election cycle known as the invisible primary when White House hopefuls test the waters for a leap at the top job in American government. The contestants form an exploratory committee of their closest and often wealthiest supporters, get in seed money to cover initial expenses, and establish whether the run for the mansion on Pennsylvania Avenue might be successful. This year, some of the hopefuls have been lining up PACS and SUPERPACS because they will need vast amounts of donated cash in the campaign coffers if they get a green light.

So far, there are no surprises in the 2016 Democrat camp. Hillary Clinton seems to have a lock on her party’s nomination, although there are one or two people such as Jim Webb and Martin O’Malley making a noise. In contrast, there are some twenty Republican hopefuls putting their names forward.

Some Republican aspirants used immoderate and un-presidential language to make themselves appear to the Republican base that they have the right Republican stuff. Politicians on both sides of the aisle know it is often good campaign politics to create an outside enemy. Hence some Republicans in the race have positioned themselves to express concern about terrorism risks and particularly the errors of the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

At a conservative summit in South Carolina last weekend, one after another Republican presidential hopeful used “let’s get tough” language to describe their hard-line positions on the Iran treaty. Although national security and foreign relations have long been a dominant issue at these kind of forums, this time around candidates greatly intensified their rhetoric as they angled to be seen as the staunchest enforcers and fiercest protectors of the country.

Texas US Senator Ted Cruz remarked that the two gunmen killed by a policeman last week in Garland, Texas “were likely inspired by the Islamic State.” Cruz added, "We saw the ugly face of Islamic terrorism in my home state of Texas, in Garland where two jihadists came to commit murder. Thankfully one police officer helped them meet their virgins."

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal stated that gun control means “hitting your target.” Jindal, who is thinking about running for president, echoed Cruz, saying he was "thankful that those two terrorists were sent to their afterlife."

Florida US Senator Marco Rubio quoted the violent action film, “Taken,” to describe his plan for defeating radical Islam. "When people ask what our strategy should be on global jihadists and terrorists, I refer them to the movie, 'Taken’…Liam Neeson, he has a line -- this is what our strategy should be: We will look for you, we will find you, and we will kill you."

Last week, Rubio flashed his hawkish foreign policy credentials by seeking to include a rider to the Bill designed to give Congress oversight of the framework deal reached with Iran. Rubio’s rider would have destroyed the Bill’s chances of going ahead. Majority leader Mitch McConnell eased Rubio’s attempt by killing the rider at birth.

At the South Carolina summit, all the Republican Senators bashed the Bill and warned that the agreement endangers Israel. The hypochrisy of these men is shocking. Two days before, all had voted in favour of the Bill.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who seems to be moving closer to officially announcing his run, received a standing ovation when he said: "We need a president who is going to back away from that deal In Iran." How ironic that all bar one US Senator voted for the Bill.

One Republican presidential candidate who was not in attendance was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is reluctant to intervene in overseas conflicts. He suffers harsh criticism because of his stance. I call it good politics. After all, he might be president one day and will not want to show his hand before negotiations with foreign leaders start.

One Republican eye-catching hopeful is Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard. She is running for president and is on record that one of the first things she would do in the White House is to stop negotiations with Iran until officials agree to inspections. On Saturday afternoon she fired off the loaded message that she would want to send to the Iranians: "Whatever the circumstances were, they have changed and until and unless you submit to full and unfettered inspections of every single nuclear facility in your country, we will exact and enact the most crushing sanctions we can."

If Fiorina gets her Party’s nomination, it will be the first time since 1952 that a candidate has not held office as the sitting President or Vice-President, or been a member of Congress or a state governor. In 1952, Eisenhower was acclaimed at the Republican Convention on the first ballot as the nominee. However he was a five star general, and held a series of interesting titles, such as Supreme Commander Allied Forces in Europe during World War II and later Supreme Commander of NATO and President of Columbia University.

By comparison what are Ms Fiorina’s credentials? As the first female head of a Fortune 50 company, she is worth $80 million, four times as much as Mrs Clinton. Whilst it is good that any American over the age of 35 can run for president, Ms Fiorina’s credentials are slim. Her hubris and lack of political nous reminds me of another hopeful, former Alaskan governor Sarah Palin.

When we look at the list of hopefuls, it would be wrong to exclude Donald Trump. In South Carolina, he decided to attack Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, the U.S. soldier who left his patrol base in Afghanistan in 2009 and was held by the Taliban for five years until the United States bartered for his release. Trumps said of President Obama, "I call our president the five-to-one president. We got Bergdahl; they get five leaders, killers that want to kill us all. And they're all back on the battlefield, by the way, and we got this piece of garbage named Bergdahl, who years ago we would have shot for treason." How presidential! Back in the 50s, people chanted “We Like Ike.” Maybe now we’ll get: “Trump’s a Chump.”

The citizens for whom I feel most pity are those who live in Iowa and New Hampshire. They will be invaded by all these politicians until February 2016, by which time the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will finally be over. That’s a long time to have your peace shattered.