Hillary for President: Will She Make It This Time?

Hillary on her way to Iowa

So, after eighteen months of newsprint sufficient to make a substantial dent in the Brazilian rainforest, not to mention the electricity used in Tweeting, Face-booking and the like, the worst- kept secret of American politics is finally out. Hillary Clinton has put her hat in the ring. She is running for president.

Traditionally, candidates for the presidential nomination go to a place meaningful to them, such as the local high school, the steps of the state congress, where, backed by their spouse and children, they talk of their childhoods, the importance of family, and their desire to serve the public. Habitually, the speech ends with the words, “and so today, I am announcing my candidacy for president of the United States of America.”

Hillary decided to do things differently. She announced her candidacy via social media. Twitter and Facebook may have become the birthplace of presidency. I would love to hear Harry Truman on the gambit. However, old Harry would have liked what Hillary did next. She announced a road trip, neither in a Battle Bus, nor a limousine but in a minibus. The trip would take her from DC all the way to Iowa where, in 2008, Barack Obama gave her the first of many bloody noses.

I do not know precisely how much money is in Mrs Clinton’s war chest but it is certain that she is well-funded through numerous PACS and SUPERPACS. I suspect she has hundreds of millions of dollars behind her, if not billions. Money will not be a problem for her through the primary season. Nor will Democratic opposition. There is only nine months until the Iowa caucus. It is difficult to envisage a Democratic candidate emerging now who would give Hillary a serious run for her money. Elizabeth Warren is quiescent right now.

The Republican opposition will probably stay quiet on Hillary. What is the point of their attacking Mrs Clinton now? Surely this should wait until she has become the Democratic nominee, at which time the Republican presidential field will have reduced from the current twenty or so hopefuls to less than a handful. None of the front runners for the Republican nomination - Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker - seem to have the Party base on high alert. Chris Christie might have been a formidable opponent for Hillary but the Bridgegate scandal seems to have wrecked his chances.

There are plenty of issues where Hillary might be vulnerable. Her poor choice of ambassador to Libya and the subsequent deaths in the diplomatic compound, the private e-mail server used by her as Secretary of State, making her appear as if she thinks she is above the law; allegedly questionable donations by the Clinton Foundation and untrue claims by her about putting herself in harm’s way when Secretary of State. Her record as Senator for New York State and voting the Bush ticket on military action may also hurt her. Even her record as First Lady might not stand too much scrutiny. It’s not her failure on healthcare that I’m considering, it’s the removal of White House furniture when her husband left office.

However, Mrs Clinton has a lot going for her. She enjoys considerable popularity at the moment, women voters are in the majority in America and they may feel it’s time for one of their gender to take top spot. Furthermore, she has a team of experienced and tested advisers and aids, headed by the man to whom she is married. No American politician can move a crowd like Bill Clinton.

Her age, at 67, might be an issue but she is a savvy politician and will, no doubt, learn from Ronald Reagan who said of his Democratic opponent, Fritz Mondale, “I will not criticize my opponent for his youth and inexperience.”

So, some eighteen months from now, what can defeat Mrs Clinton? In two words, Mrs Clinton. She has a vulnerability, a moral compass that seems to be disturbed by an adverse magnetic power that puts her off focus. She gives the impression she has a problem distinguishing right from wrong. In the political world, this issue is rarely simple. But in a contest which is all about character, Hillary will be portrayed as someone who has not stepped up to the plate in the past.

In addition to a test of character, the American presidential election process is a test of stamina. I have no doubt that Mrs Clinton is up for the challenge. Will she make it to the finishing line? Let me dust off my crystal ball…..in eighteen months.