During the next six months,
politicians the length and breadth of the United States will be fighting to
retain or win seats in the United States Congress, the Capitols of fifty States
and the Governors’ Mansions, not to mention the thousands of lesser political
positions up for grabs in the November, 2014, mid-terms.
According to a recent Washington Post poll, the GOP has a 92% chance
of regaining control of the US Senate. The
Post made no comment about the majority in the House. Presumably, the
Democrats have no chance of making any inroads there. There are two men who
will look on all the contests with mixed emotions, from jealousy to relief. Their
election days are done. Joe Biden has not written himself out of the 2016
presidential race but I suspect his prospects of running are nil. For certain,
the President’s days at the polling booths are done.
The American mid-terms are an odd
mix. Members of the House of Representatives appreciate that the public in
their districts will vote as much on local issues as the success or otherwise
of the leaders in DC. The President can be an effective weapon in the elections
but I suspect his coat-tails will be short this time around. The GOP has done one
heck of a job damaging Mr Obama’s image, treating him with prejudice, on any
reasonable view. The President has had to grapple with the most hostile
Congress in living memory and that’s saying something. Let’s not forget the
rough ride meted out to both Harry Truman and Bill Clinton by Congress.
Punishment was also delivered to Richard Nixon but his problems rested solely with
Watergate and political opportunism, not just outright hatred.
In order to justify my comment
that the President’s is being regarded unfairly, look at his extraordinary track
record over the past five plus years. Let me first analyse what the President
inherited. President George W. Bush embarked on The War on Terror, committing
large numbers of troops and pricy equipment to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The fighting still continued when Bush left office. These wars were very
expensive, to the detriment of the taxpayer and benefit of Halliburton, the
corporation which was once headed by Vice President Cheney.
Despite the outlay needed to
fight in the Middle-East, Bush pushed through reckless tax cuts which mostly
benefited the rich and arguably almost bankrupted the country. The motor
industry in Detroit collapsed. Ford was bust and needed rescuing. The
investment banking sector was exposed as a great casino on the losing end. A
government bail-out had to be brokered, at the taxpayer’s expense. In 2008 the America
economy was as vulnerable as it had been since the start of World War II. At
his inauguration, Obama received the most depressing inheritance imaginable, or
perhaps it was the best; he could hardly have made things worse.
Since 2009, Obama’s track record in
the face of a multitude of crises is admirable. What he has achieved reminds me
of one of Bill Clinton sayings: “There is nothing wrong in America which cannot
be corrected by what is right in America.” To begin with, the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan are ending, without disaster or a rout of American forces. Al Qaeda
seems to have been crippled by America’s military and although I deplore the
use of drones and the collateral damage that follows in their wake, it cannot
be denied they have ‘excluded’ many Al Qaeda leaders. Osama bin Laden was found
and executed. True, the peace is fragile and opportunities exist for groups
like the Taliban and Muslim extremists to exploit their political ends but this
is a continuing fact of global life.
On the debit side, America has
appeared weak in relation to the Syrian crisis. The administration forgot the
lessons of Bush senior and the building of coalitions with other nations.
However, the President might respond by saying the American people have no
stomach for and will not support another war in the Middle-East. Obama’s
promise to close Guantanamo has not been kept, although methods of torture
approved by the Bush administration hopefully have stopped.
President Obama has signed a
record number of Executive Orders to side-step a Republican-governed House of
Representatives. Most Orders have not been reversed by Congress. The Democratic
majority in the Senate has pushed through a change to its rules so Republicans
can no longer filibuster judicial appointments below Supreme Court level. It is
true to say that much Obama-inspired legislation has been killed off in
committee. Arguably, this is not unusual treatment for any administration.
On the domestic front, much has
been achieved by this underrated president. His policies have rescued both the
economy and the car industry. A bank crisis was averted, although there is
still no legislation in place to curb some of the outrageous behaviour of
investment banks. This is a global problem but Mr Obama has not led a coalition
of western governments towards a satisfactory global solution.
Life in America for many is hardly
rosy. The poor in America remain poor. The percentage of American children
living in poverty now is the same as it was in 1900. The American middle class
have borne the brunt of the recession. The average after-tax middle class
incomes have fallen in real terms since 2000 and America no longer occupies the
world’s top spot for wages. Yet the wealthiest of Americans are outpacing their
global peers, according to The New York
Times.
On the credit side, the American
government deficit has shrunk at a faster pace than at any time since the
Second World War. The economy is improving at a pace. Unemployment is reducing.
Mr Obama has presided over a revolution in gay rights. Universal health
insurance is now a fact of American life, despite irrational opposition from legislators,
the same people who enjoy the best health insurance the country has to offer. In
all this, the President has withstood vitriolic and hateful confrontation with
the dignity that makes him worthy of office.
I believe the Democrats will get
a bloody nose in November but it will not be the fault of the President. He has
had to play a difficult, if not impossible, hand for the past three years and
has done so, often showing grace under fire. At times, I have wished he would
behave like Lyndon Johnson and take his Congressional colleagues to task or
network more with the legislators but this is just not his style. Hopefully,
history will be much kinder to this President than his contemporaries.
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