Where Next the Republican Party?

Whatever the outcome of the present dispute in Congress relating to the budget, debt ceilings and Obamacare, it looks like the Republican Party will take quite a beating from the American voters. Polls last week indicated that only one quarter of those asked thought the Republicans were doing the right thing by holding the administration’s feet to the fire. This leads me to ask again why the House Republicans thought it was a good idea to mount another challenge to Obamacare in the budget debate, rather than waiting for the mid-terms next year, and why they believed that shutting the government down would play to their advantage?

Where do I start? Undoubtedly, a new Republican agenda was initiated by Ronald Reagan. He advocated a strong America leading the world in commerce, industry and restoring America’s military might, whilst failing to raise taxes to pay the bill for it all. His administration ran up huge deficits in the process but the voters loved his optimism, his willingness to take on Cold War opponents and his vision of the city on the hill. A healthy majority of voters didn’t seem to care what it cost.

George Bush, number 41, tried to bring the deficit under control but failed. “No new taxes” bit him in the bum! Bill Clinton occupied the White House for eight years, fought and won a shutdown against the Republican right wing, side-lined the House Republicans to boot and even presided over a government surplus. Who now remembers right-winger and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and his Contract with America? One hundred days of anti-administration bills saw the light of day in the House but the bills failed in the Senate. Gingrich scored a huge own goal when he complained about his seat in the rear of the aircraft on Air Force One on a trip to Israel. The public hooted at him out of influence. The Speaker became a busted flush.

George W. Bush, number 43, described himself as a war president. He ran up the biggest deficit ever. The War on Terror was expensive but big money was also spent on social security and healthcare as tax cuts reduced the federal government income. GWB’s policy was economics gone mad. But where were the Congressional Republicans when this was going on? Unlike the Democrats, who are often a law unto themselves, even when a member of their own party occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the Republicans showed a remarkable ability to toe the party line. The whips earned their salaries. So there was hardly a peep of complaint that the American economy was sick.

When in 2008 the inevitable happened and a Democrat won the White House, the Republican Party had an epiphany. Instead of approving massive budget deficits, the Republicans suddenly saw the light and sought huge spending cuts, while holding onto the tax cuts. The Tea Party emerged with an interesting policy. I would express it in one word: “No.” Tea Partiers were opposed to all federal government spending except on the military and Medicare, which older Tea Partiers described as “an entitlement.” For the TPs, poverty did not matter, education and healthcare were for the families to deal with, save of course for their entitlements, and “the feds should keep their hand off our money.” How interesting that the first senior Republican to complain about this year’s shutdown of museums, monuments and state parks was Newt Gingrich. He wants a shutdown while keeping these buildings and parks open. Talk about having it both ways.

Every American with whom I have spoken in the last two weeks cannot understand the House Republican tactics. Whilst Tea Party Republicans oppose Obama at every level, they do not dominate the Party in Congress. Why do other House Republicans go along with the minority? My guess is fear of well-funded opposition to incumbents by Tea Party people in the 2014 mid-terms. Looking forward to 2016, presidential hopefuls want a Tea Party endorsement, not to mention financial backing.

Let’s get back to the shutdown. My belief is that a clean budget bill will be passed eventually. The Washington Post is reporting that twenty House Republicans are already in the “clean bill” column. If a clean bill is passed, together with an increased debt ceiling, Congressional Republicans will be humiliated. If so, it will be followed by blood-letting. Politicians are renowned for eating their own.

So, what does the future hold for the Republican Party if I am right? I do not dismiss the possibility of a moderate/right wing split, although I believe this is unlikely. However, the Democrats may benefit if some Republicans, faced by Tea Party opponents in 2014, switch sides. Obama might find he has more Blue Dogs in the House to keep happy. What I see is a party fractured. On one side, right wing Republicans will hold to their ideology, no matter if it means defeat at the polls. The remnant, those who were once called moderates, may try to keep their party intact/

If only I had a crystal ball.