The Curse of the Second Term.

For my inaugural blog, I have asked myself a question. What is it about presidential second terms that cause so much hassle? Looking at the history of second terms since the turn of the 20th century, the picture is ghastly. Woodrow Wilson campaigned in 1916 to keep USA of war and promptly changed his mind the following year. In 1919, his efforts to have the Treaty of Versailles ratified by Congress ended in abject failure, loss of health and a premature end of his presidency, although the public did not know Mrs Wilson was in charge!

FDR's landslide victory in 1936 gave him sufficient confidence to take on the Supreme Court, whose justices had been dismantling New Deal legislation. FDR was so shocked when an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress rejected the administration’s Court Packing Plan. He lost faith in himself, something totally out of character. Then he made a grave error in turning off the spigots of federal money in 1936/7, throwing the economy back into recession. His foreign policy of “keep your hands off China” meant abandoning the Manchurians to a Japanese fate. What saved his administration and the route to a third term was the onset of hostilities in Europe and the rise of America’s Arsenal of Democracy.

Strictly, Harry Truman did not have a second term. He was elected Vice President in 1944. However, he served as president for just a few months less than eight years. It is worthwhile reading American newspapers for 1948-50 to understand the turbulence of those domestic times within USA. Industrial unrest was rife as unions fought for better wages at a time of price restriction and the administration struggled to come to terms with a peace-time economy. By 1950, the economy had improved a little but Truman then had to cope with the invasion of South Korea. He invoked a police action which he could not win. He left the White House with the lowest ever presidential popularity rating at that time. Mind you he left in typical Truman style. No helicopters and Air Force One for Harry. He and Bess walked out of the White House suitcases in hand, strolled to Union Station and took the train to Kansas City.

Ike's second term was mired in scandal. A Summit meeting with Khrushchev was dealt a body blow by the U2 spy plane debacle. The failure by the administration to invest in space found USA behind the curve, although the so-called Missile Gap was a myth, exploited by Kennedy to the full in 1960. In Ike’s farewell address, he had the chutzpah to warn against the rise of America's military industrial complex, something which Ike himself had helped create.

Like Truman, LBJ was strictly a one term president. Had he avoided the Vietnam trap, he might have gone down in history as the greatest of all the presidents. His domestic legislative programme, passed in just four years, changed American society for decades and despite the efforts of Republican administrations to dismantle such legislation, much remains. But the media nailed any hope of LBJ’s Valhallan legacy as a Vietnam settlement became impossible and as American casualties rose. LBJ left the White House a beaten man.

Nixon's second term began with his triumph in China but politics has a short memory. All too soon, his second term was mired in Watergate and impeachment. In 1974, he became the only president to resign his office.

Reagan was lucky to avoid impeachment. His conduct in the Iran Contra Affair showed his complete disregard for Congressional statutes. However, there was no political will to remove him. Supply side economics and “trickle down” created the biggest budget deficit the world had ever seen. Altogether, the second term was disastrous.

Clinton was in the White House in both bad and good economic times. H refused to accept a Republican budget and saw the federal government closed before accepting severe cuts for working families. His second term witnessed a budget surplus. However, the man had personal weaknesses which caught him out. Although the impeachment trial failed and should never have occurred, Clinton’s presidency was holed beneath the water line.

George W Bush did not just have a disastrous second term. He matched it in his first term! The War on Terror and more “trickle down” economics, together with the 2008 banking crisis, took the administration into free fall.

So is it any surprise that the apogee of Obama's second term may prove to be election night, November 2012? Since then, what legislation programme has been achieved? The damaging sequester is being felt the length and breadth of America society as working families are finding it hard come to terms with the new austerity.

In the follow-up to this blog, I will explore the reasons why second terms are so problematical, as well as the options that President Obama has available. Maybe his second term need not end in tears.